tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-57973786882705125632024-03-19T01:48:25.444-07:00Prosper: An EVE Online Tool Development BlogAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.comBlogger161125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-16720079184347651462017-04-17T08:00:00.000-07:002017-04-17T08:00:24.843-07:00Aspiring Hari Seldon - Part 3 - Releasing REST Forecasts<a href="https://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2017/03/aspiring-hari-seldon-part-2.html" target="_blank"><i>Check out part 2</i></a><br />
<br />
After playing with <a href="https://facebookincubator.github.io/prophet/" target="_blank">Prophet</a>, I wanted a way to distribute the data more publicly. I could have just incorporated it into our <a href="https://github.com/EVEprosper/ProsperSlides/tree/master/ProsperSlides/R_templates" target="_blank">R templates</a> and made it part of the show, but I felt like that was unfair to the general public.<br />
<br />
(Though it required a ground-up rework) I used the <a href="https://flask-restful.readthedocs.io/en/0.3.5/" target="_blank">Flask Restful</a> app we were providing for <a href="https://www.eve-mogul.com/" target="_blank">EVE Mogul</a>. Though this turned out to be a complete rewrite, I learned a lot about Flask and testing to make things go.<br />
<br />
<h3>
What They Don't Tell You</h3>
<div>
One of the biggest pains of self-teaching is it's very easy to learn enough to be useful, but not enough to be good. And the Flask documentation is particularly bad about giving up the barebones of what does what, but totally forgets to sell a viable project shape, leading to a lot of pain later.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Since the original OHLC feed was based loosely off a work project (as a way to test out corners on my own time), it repeated a design flaw. Turns out there's a very particular Flask shape, and deviating from it causes a lot of problems. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Some examples to avoid pitfalls:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://github.com/sloria/cookiecutter-flask" target="_blank">Flask Cookiecutter</a></li>
<li><a href="https://github.com/yabb85/ueki" target="_blank">ueki Flask-Restful project</a></li>
</ul>
<div>
By using the prescribed Flask structure, all the pieces from launcher to test make a lot more sense. Particularly, <a href="https://github.com/EVEprosper/ProsperAPI/blob/master/docs/release.md" target="_blank">testing</a> was one of the more difficult pieces of the picture.</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
About The Endpoint</h3>
<div>
Because of the CPU-intensive operation of running predictions, I wanted to incorporate two features:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>API keying</li>
<li>Caching</li>
</ul>
<div>
Though I'm happy to share the source, and open up to the community, I'm not ready for full-hog release. TL;DR: There are a couple of Flask eccentricities, and gdoc integration could cause some serious issues. Also, uncached performance can run north of 15s, which could cause issues for some platforms.</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
To help get around "walled garden" accusations, I've done a few things:</div>
<div>
<ol>
<li>I've left copious notes and automation on how to deploy the service on your own webhost</li>
<li>I've provided API keys to some other market devs such as <a href="https://www.eve-mogul.com/" target="_blank">EVE Mogul</a> and <a href="https://www.adam4eve.eu/" target="_blank">Adam4EVE</a></li>
<li>I am happy to distribute keys on-request to other devs</li>
</ol>
<div>
The goal is to get the <i>content</i> out to the widest audience possible, even if the raw data is a little unwieldy. And due to my limitations as a developer, this is my compromise. </div>
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<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<h3>
Predictions In The Wild</h3>
</div>
<h4>
<a href="https://dev.adam4eve.eu/commodity.php?typeID=29668&region=10000002&fcast=1" target="_blank">Adam4EVE</a></h4>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaKRhrvckpNLjwNTjS5VMaT4D3Tchhri6u28HFtfbRYnJpfrudWvHRcK0XxoCqZDW_Vso6yypSQU42hatlEZaOgqdQ3NnqowXqKdGoeOsfkTv3iD2-m29ZBctST3QP7BMM9uMrCUhdXuo/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-04-10+at+4.31.44+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaKRhrvckpNLjwNTjS5VMaT4D3Tchhri6u28HFtfbRYnJpfrudWvHRcK0XxoCqZDW_Vso6yypSQU42hatlEZaOgqdQ3NnqowXqKdGoeOsfkTv3iD2-m29ZBctST3QP7BMM9uMrCUhdXuo/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-04-10+at+4.31.44+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0AgVZuR7GsoIgiB08mviH7wJiFvTGR35cKegqqs1XZVk5_dCTrL0kZXLHOvDpG8TCfsvCp29rArNkoSX4a9Hz1IUUx7Qc5ct8e5pUkFsu9T3bhK5VNhvxvtHVd7Tl7JllcLcrmmusSzw/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-04-10+at+4.32.27+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0AgVZuR7GsoIgiB08mviH7wJiFvTGR35cKegqqs1XZVk5_dCTrL0kZXLHOvDpG8TCfsvCp29rArNkoSX4a9Hz1IUUx7Qc5ct8e5pUkFsu9T3bhK5VNhvxvtHVd7Tl7JllcLcrmmusSzw/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-04-10+at+4.32.27+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div>
Though my API service is designed to give you soup-to-nuts everything you need to plot in the REST payload, Ethan02 over at Adam4EVE added his own DB to keep us honest. I totally love this! As of right now, it's still in their DEV branch, but expect to see more from them soon!</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h4>
<a href="https://www.eve-mogul.com/" target="_blank">EVE-Mogul</a></h4>
<div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMH3vHWfHsypI1t0TTmQFIDkBwd-UJ06HhArIz137bHx3v1G-G3fvofaL9uYdm4CP_Mav4ljkFFZN3GkDuSJlIyR3Hd8qnlh5GH82X7El1muWGtyRglhJhVF7BTxucIn-ysOvaFiaBkXU/s1600/8f45ab3c.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMH3vHWfHsypI1t0TTmQFIDkBwd-UJ06HhArIz137bHx3v1G-G3fvofaL9uYdm4CP_Mav4ljkFFZN3GkDuSJlIyR3Hd8qnlh5GH82X7El1muWGtyRglhJhVF7BTxucIn-ysOvaFiaBkXU/s640/8f45ab3c.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div>
Extending the existing OHLC candlestick plot, EVE Mogul will let you keep close tabs on what you're currently trading, and this is an excellent chance to gut-check your investments.</div>
<h3>
Conclusions</h3>
<div>
Check out the source: <a href="https://github.com/EVEprosper/ProsperAPI" target="_blank">ProsperAPI</a></div>
<div>
<a href="https://github.com/EVEprosper/ProsperAPI/blob/master/docs/crest_endpoint.md" target="_blank">Read the docs</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I didn't get to share all the other super-nerdy #devfleet stuff (like t<a href="https://travis-ci.org/EVEprosper/ProsperAPI" target="_blank">ravis-ci integration</a>, or <a href="https://pypi.python.org/pypi/ProsperCommon" target="_blank">PyPI release</a>). I will probably try to release more notes on python stuff directly on <a href="https://medium.com/@HLIBIndustry/python-logging-custom-handlers-f3ba784a9452" target="_blank">Medium</a> going forward.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This was an eye opening project in a lot of ways. This opens the door for more micro-service REST stuff in the future. Also, I do plan to have the <a href="https://github.com/EVEprosper/ProsperAPI/issues/2" target="_blank">PLEX split</a> covered before CCP releases it on May 9th.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-28064542199586548342017-04-11T08:00:00.000-07:002017-04-11T08:00:05.564-07:00My Space-RetirementI hate reading this kind of blog, and I hate writing them even more. One day I should show off how many drafts of this I have stuck in limbo. My IRL trajectory has steadily diverged from EVE, and it's time to accept that and make plans known.<br />
<br />
We'll save the how/why for a little later, but I want to address fans of the show first. The Prosper show has been the thread keeping me tied into EVE, and our community around Prosper has continued to surprise me with their knowledge and enthusiasm. The community we've been able to generate around this niche-of-a-niche has been extraordinary and I am constantly floored by all the players in the space-economic sphere. This whole project has exceeded every expectation, and I have to thank every single audience member and technical contributor that's got us here. None of this would be possible without a whole lot of help from wide range of people.<br />
<br />
Before you unsubscribe and leave everything in the dust, do know that I still hope to keep active in the blogging/streaming spheres. Though we are closing this chapter in EVE, we are looking upward to new topics that I think many will enjoy. Though I can't commit to details yet, know that I'd very much like to turn this brand of analysis onto something more real, and help teach more in the vein of the #devfleet.<br />
<br />
Expect the final EVE Prosper show to air in June. I'd very much like to hit #100 before we close this chapter, but I don't want this to be the end of our little community. I am still enthusiastic about the same things that started Prosper (economics, programming, datascience) and still want to bring a down-to-earth style to topics that might look insurmountably complex. But I cannot continue to be that resource for EVE.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Thank you everyone that has made this show possible. Thank you to Caleb/Rhivre at the SCC-Lounge, Jeronica at EVE-Mogul, and thank you to Dirk MacGirk and Materall at INN, for helping weave a community both in and out of game with us. Thank you to the Capstable crew and the likes of NoisyGamer for helping us grow this srsbzns niche. And thank you immensely to Randomboy/Kane, Chris Mellen, and Etienne Erquiline for all the behind-the-scenes technical work to build EVE Prosper into what it has become... and I am sure I'm still missing a cavalcade of others who have helped us stand and grow.<br />
<br />
<br />
No one truly quits EVE, and I can't for certain say this is the absolute end... but after 12 years of play, and 5 years of content making, it's time to look to a new chapter. Please, do join us as we bring this show to a close, and thank you to everyone who has made this possible. There are a few remaining projects in the runway, so be sure to watch to the very end.<br />
<br />
o7Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-47740123816789068482017-03-02T08:40:00.000-08:002017-03-02T08:40:12.269-08:00Aspiring Hari Seldon - Part 2<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
Been quite a while, but I have a follow up to <a href="https://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2015/07/aspiring-harri-seldon-developing-price.html" target="_blank">this old post</a>.<br />
<br />
<h3>
A Crash Course</h3>
<div>
Tinkering with prices is difficult, and most players may not understand why. Though we all interact with the price of things, unspinning the mess of how and why becomes complicated fast. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
What's worse, the price of a thing <a href="https://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/market/link/10000002/29668" target="_blank">doesn't follow traditional fitting tools</a>, it's a collection of ups-and-downs day-to-day. It's a solution to a complicated network of factors. This is why I've had so much trouble designing forecasts; because starting point is critical, and the walking methods aren't strictly obvious.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
After dancing around this problem for as long as I have, I've come up with a few best-practices for approaching Prosper's economic reporting:</div>
<div>
<ol>
<li>Make it normal or linear: hard math is hard, keep analysis as simple as possible</li>
<li>Figure out connections: storytelling can quickly connect seemingly disparate points</li>
<li>Assume players aren't dumb: everyone is trying to win</li>
<li>Look for disproof: try to eliminate weaknesses and errors in tools</li>
</ol>
<h3>
Prophet - A New Crack At Forecasting</h3>
</div>
<div>
My boss sent me a link to <a href="https://facebookincubator.github.io/prophet/" target="_blank">Prophet</a>. And, of course, I threw EVE data at it!</div>
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<div>
On the one hand, that PLEX prediction is pretty hilarious, while on the other, the injector forecast is very close to one I'd publish on the show.<br />
<br />
So, what is going on here? I still think we're running into the issue of putting linear-style modeling on a non-linear problem, but we're getting much closer to the gut-version I would like to illustrate on the show. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
What's more, we can use a previous lesson and use the forecaster to predict the day-to-day volatility as a second opinion. Using a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_Brownian_motion" target="_blank">GBM-style method</a>, we get this:</div>
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<div>
Getting a second opinion in this case is a good way to counteract the problem of runaway models; forecasts that get stuck in a runaway up or down swing. Though it's not fool-proof, we're reaching a "good enough" level to actually start considering it in our tooling.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Let's Go!</h3>
</div>
<div>
<a href="https://gist.github.com/lockefox/230b15eddb42aeb6b1b2a65c3b5ec5b7" target="_blank">Get the code here</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
As promising as these initial findings are, I still worry they aren't a good replacement for more robust methods. I'm still investigating the following:</div>
<div>
<ol>
<li>Single-dimension: only using price data, not including volume for supply/demand accounting</li>
<li>Limited test scope: only run on CREST history data, not extended history data yet</li>
<li>Time series rigidity: designed for daily data</li>
<li>No extended grading done: need to test predictions vs reality</li>
</ol>
<div>
But the future is promising. There are some key features I'm loving in this library:</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://facebookincubator.github.io/prophet/docs/trend_changepoints.html" target="_blank">Built-in changepoint trending</a>: predicting discontinuities is very powerful</li>
<li>Python/R library parity: easy development/testing</li>
<li>Built-in week/month/season accounting</li>
<li>EXTREMELY FAST</li>
</ul>
<div>
There's so much more to play with, and I'm excited to dive deeper. I'm looking into including these forecasts <i>sparingly</i> into the Prosper show going forward, as a better way to illustrate my gut feelings. And hopefully we can incorporate these forecasts in a more robust feature in the near future!</div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>TypeNames redacted while debugging</i></span></div>
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<div>
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<div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-467813926443734632016-11-07T07:00:00.000-08:002016-11-07T08:30:54.858-08:00Casino Bans and F2P - October Economic Report<br />
October was jam packed with news. <a href="https://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/building-dreams-introducing-engineering-complexes/" target="_blank">Engineering Complexes</a>, <a href="https://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/inception-the-new-player-experience-for-eve-online/" target="_blank">NPE Update</a>, <a href="https://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/command-bursts/" target="_blank">Command Boosts</a>, and <a href="https://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/end-user-license-agreement-changes-coming-with-eve-online-ascension/" target="_blank">EULA changes</a>. The stage is set for Ascension, but where is the economy today?<br />
<br />
<h2>
<span style="font-size: large;">
The Money Supply - IWI Bans</span></h2>
<div>
Though EVEbet was allowed to close peacefully and settle tabs, I Want ISK (IWI) was shuttered with a ban wave that knocked out the leaders while zeroing out all bankers' wallets. I personally feel that this kind of enforcement was one of the better scenarios given the circumstances; freeing IWI from paying back over-leveraged liabilities because #grrccp. But many complain that without the premier content sponsors, producers and content makers will be in trouble. Though it’s important to remember the EULA update is in line with a changing litigious atmosphere around virtual gambling, see: <a href="http://www.pcgamer.com/state-regulator-orders-valve-to-halt-csgo-skin-gambling-through-steam/" target="_blank">Valve mired in CS:GO trouble</a>.</div>
<div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixMUuhcmnkS1DXvTx06fGCVZPuzGvU1D29kwhDu51hZk7Dxu-DXIeGBPw9nqQPWB7GtEnH39SXvig4hpOvdf__l4jsh9UTTbD3J-__6Qq5qnz-ZunLQlqsZsyK66AA8SrHyL7ChEdct8k/s1600/Money_Supply-2016-11-06.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixMUuhcmnkS1DXvTx06fGCVZPuzGvU1D29kwhDu51hZk7Dxu-DXIeGBPw9nqQPWB7GtEnH39SXvig4hpOvdf__l4jsh9UTTbD3J-__6Qq5qnz-ZunLQlqsZsyK66AA8SrHyL7ChEdct8k/s640/Money_Supply-2016-11-06.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://content.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/70687/1/9b_isk.float.3.png" target="_blank">Money Supply Graph</a> - Total ISK zoomed in</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Market watchers wanted to know the quantifiable impacts. <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Eve/comments/58ujxz/can_we_stop_with_the_30_trillion_number_please/" target="_blank">Reddit reports</a> put the damage at 30T, but looking between the <a href="http://content.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/70687/1/9b_isk.float.3.png" target="_blank">Money Supply data</a> and monthly <a href="http://content.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/70687/1/9a_sinksfaucets.png" target="_blank">Sinks & Faucet Report</a>, we're estimate the total cash impact at 22.4T out of a record 36T reported in the Active ISK Delta for October. Damages could total to 30T when counting confiscated PLEX or high-value assets like Alliance Tournament prizes, but that value is not reported in the <a href="https://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/monthly-economic-report-october-2016/" target="_blank">Economic Report</a> and we have no way of corroborating any claim over 27T.<span id="docs-internal-guid-850f157b-3c2f-0b9f-0de1-307bbff9a9a0"></span></div>
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<br />
Lastly, <a href="https://twitter.com/EveOnline/status/794563816524746752" target="_blank">CCP Quant released</a> a breakdown of EVE's player wealth distribution. Though many took to social media to argue about the 1%, the distribution of ISK is much fairer than anticipated. It's a good bet to assume a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law" target="_blank">power curve</a> in cases like this: where 20% of the population controls 80% of the resources. And though this does not include net worth/physical assets, nor corporation wallets or alliance war-chests, it's an interesting sample of wealth in EVE.<br />
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<a href="https://i.redd.it/eyqbtnq1qmvx.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://i.redd.it/eyqbtnq1qmvx.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<h2>
<span style="font-size: large;">Other Indicators</span></h2>
</div>
Looking at other monthly indicators we find a mixed bag. First off, PLEX and ISK velocity remain on their seasonal track without much deviation. PLEX has risen a little too sharply in the last week, and shows some signs of leveling off for a price between 1.25B and 1.3B for Ascension.<br />
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Usually, the markets are hottest in the fall, with gaming rising across the board in Q4. Last year, the markets were hottest in October with each player gathering like EVE_NT, EVEsterdam, and EVE Vegas stoking the hype train. This year, players seem to be in a holding pattern ahead of Ascension. Though <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWuk7GDZsqs" target="_blank">CCP Rise's Alpha Clone PVP presentations</a> should have stoked more hype into pre-Ascension speculation, statistics still look anemic. Furthermore, the PVP numbers are concerning. The pre-Vegas dip was so unbelievable, we had to verify we were not missing data.<br />
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<h2>
<span style="font-size: large;">Looking Forward to Ascension</span></h2>
Hitting the big points as fast as possible:<br />
<ul>
<li><b>PLEX</b>: Expect demand to be a wash, watch out for PLEX sales to pop the current bubble</li>
<li><b>Mining</b>: Brace for big impacts across the board:</li>
<ul>
<li><b>Tritanium</b>: Stay stable in short term due to ISK/m3 value, but expect long term sag</li>
<li><b>Pyerite/Isogen</b>: Bigger drops as compressed material comes out of nullsec</li>
<li><b>Mexallon/Nocxium</b>: Expecting supply stability, though volatile prices</li>
<li><b>Zydrine/Megacyte</b>: Still have room to fall, and will be clobbered by Ascension mining</li>
<li><b>Morphite</b>: Minimum supply change, but weak demand without big conflicts</li>
<li><b>Nitrogen Isotopes</b>: EC's should offline many industry POS, lowering demand</li>
<li><b>Other Isotopes</b>: Hot on patch day, but supplies should drive prices down by end of year</li>
</ul>
<li><b>Alphas</b>: Minimal impacts in T1 prices, but should drive up ISK velocity and PVP stats</li>
</ul>
Forecasting Alpha impacts is incredibly difficult given no other game comes close to EVE mechanically. Many savvy players already treat EVE as F2P thanks to PLEX. Also, since Skill Injectors were introduced, subsidizing ISK generation has never been easier. The content of EVE is players, and Alphas give the means to keep more warm bodies in the game. We are excited to see Nov-Jan's economic stats with the expected flood of new content generators.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-6078902736128063342016-10-27T07:00:00.000-07:002016-10-27T07:09:21.452-07:00Favorite Python Packages 01 - Making a chatbotI had to write a <a href="https://docs.python.org/3.5/library/logging.handlers.html">logging handler</a> for work that pushed errors up to HipChat. Turns out the process was so easy, I could not resist adding a chat-handler to <a href="https://github.com/EVEprosper/ProsperCommon">ProsperCommon</a> (esp given my hacky email handler). Despite my love for Slack, Discord became the tool-of-choice because it’s easy to stand-up/tear-down chats with a lot of flexibility. I also skipped Slack for now because the <a href="https://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/tweetfleet-slack-invites/">tweetfleet server</a> blows past the 10k message buffer on a daily basis.<br />
<br />
So, let's cook up a chatbot! <a href="https://discordapp.com/developers/docs/intro">Discord's API</a> offerings are dizzying; this should be easy!<br />
<br />
<h3>
<a href="http://discordpy.readthedocs.io/en/latest/api.html" target="_blank">Discord.py</a> - Making Chatbots Easy</h3>
Since Discord relies on an oAuth2 connection, and chats are inherently asynchronous, cooking up a bot from scratch would hurt. <a href="http://discordpy.readthedocs.io/en/latest/api.html">Discord.py</a> to the rescue! This library has exceptional API coverage and is easy to use. <br />
<br />
My one gripe is the documentation. Docs are sparse in places, but I'll forgive that sin with their <a href="https://github.com/Rapptz/discord.py/tree/master/examples">example code</a> and an active community on the <a href="https://discord.gg/Rv2MC">Discord API Guild</a>. Also, I had some trouble getting off the ground with the <a href="https://discordapp.com/developers/docs/topics/oauth2">Discord API docs</a>. Specifically, getting the correct tokens required to work, but once the bot was authenticated, it was off to the races!<br />
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<h3>
<a href="http://tinydb.readthedocs.io/en/latest/" target="_blank">TinyDB</a> - The Easy Object-store</h3>
Pinging the internet for data is not free; whether because of rate limits or round trip times. Tools like <a href="https://sqlite.org/">SQLite</a> are great for lightweight/portable data storage, but also requires schema design. <a href="https://www.mongodb.com/">MongoDB</a> is a powerful noSQL solution, but is heavy to stand up (and I'm not in love with the query language). <a href="http://tinydb.readthedocs.io/en/latest/">TinyDB</a> comes to the rescue as a way to get the JSON/noSQL storage of <a href="https://www.mongodb.com/">MongoDB</a> with none of the server/auth standup.<br />
<br />
This shines when paired with REST endpoints. It's easy to push/pop entries around and keep the same raw JSON in archive as what's coming from the endpoint. Also, it's as easy as JSON to add more keys for searching. I'm still not in love with my cache-timer implementation in ProsperBot, but fetching from cache is 100x faster than an internet-call. Lastly, debug is easy since output is raw JSON, though this could lead to compression issues down the line.<br />
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-b898d85e-0339-3227-ea87-236d0338911e"></span><br />
Quick pro-tip about <a href="http://tinydb.readthedocs.io/en/latest/">TinyDB</a>: get <a href="https://pypi.python.org/pypi/ujson">ujson</a>. This pure-C implementation of the JSON library is a great drop-in replacement. It can also be baked into libraries like <a href="https://github.com/kennethreitz/requests/issues/1595">Requests</a>. <a href="https://pypi.python.org/pypi/ujson">ujson</a> makes handling JSON lightning fast! Also, <a href="http://tinydb.readthedocs.io/en/latest/">TinyDB</a> has a wide array of extensions, and I will be looking into MongoDB hooks at a future date.</div>
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<h3>
<a href="http://www.nltk.org/" target="_blank">NLTK</a> - Processing Text Made Easy</h3>
<div>
The number one problem I have with stock quotes: it takes 2-3 extra clicks to figure out WHY the price moved for the day. Google/Yahoo/etc provide great single-stock pages that give news summaries, but when you open a ticker or phone widget, only the raw numbers are reported. If I'm going to make a quote bot, why not include some information and save people a search?<br />
<br />
The good news, Google/Yahoo both give a by-ticker API of relevant news articles. The bad news, they yield 10-15 articles in the query. Furthermore, the data isn't particularly ranked/scored from the source. I could have gambled with first-article being the best, or stacked a publisher priority order, but all I wanted was:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Good news when the stock is up. Bad news when the stock is down</blockquote>
NLTK to the rescue. I have wanted to try my hand at sentiment/language analysis since I saw a local talk on <a href="https://github.com/MichaelAHood/lending_club">Analyzing P2P Lending Data</a>. Putting headlines through the <a href="http://www.nltk.org/api/nltk.sentiment.html#module-nltk.sentiment.vader">vader_lexicon</a> tools did exactly what I wanted and was blazing fast.</div>
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After playing with this quick demo of NLTK, I'm excited to expand this toolset. If I can find the time, I'd very much like to write up a new discord bot for grading a community and highlighting troublemakers statistically rather than bluntly using block lists and word black-lists. <br />
<br />
<h3>
Let's See It!</h3>
<div>
<a href="https://github.com/EVEprosper/ProsperUtilities/tree/master/bots" target="_blank">ProsperBot Source</a></div>
<div>
<a href="https://github.com/EVEprosper/ProsperUtilities/blob/master/docs/prosperbot.md" target="_blank">ProsperBot Docs</a></div>
<div>
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<div>
I'm going to save the "how to get [stock] data" question for another blog. There's a wide world of API's and support out there, and digging into them is worth a whole blog. For the impatient, I used these two articles as a springboard to get started:</div>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://blog.yhat.com/posts/stock-data-python.html" target="_blank">An Introduction to Stock Market Data Analysis with Python (Part 1)</a></li>
<li><a href="http://blog.yhat.com/posts/stock-data-python-pt2.html" target="_blank">An Introduction to Stock Market Data Analysis with Python (Part 2)</a></li>
</ul>
<div>
Though designing the bot language may require some creative design for EVE topics, standing up the bot should be easy. I've been able to add functions at a uniquely fast pace (0.5-1d/feature) and standing up the whole bot took just a few evenings once I got through the roadblocks. The libraries above are excellent tools to have in your tool box, and I'm excited to dig deeper into their functionality beyond the small <span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">`hello world`</span> functions written so far!</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-53273297074332920862016-10-18T08:00:00.000-07:002016-10-27T08:19:21.472-07:00Up And Down - Maintaining a OHLC Endpoint and Deploying Flask Restful<span id="docs-internal-guid-4eb2e8a3-d655-ec34-a7a6-5fbec0b15a40"></span><br />
This is the first part of a more technical devblog. I will be writing up more specifics in a part 2, but I wanted to talk about the ups and downs behind the scenes with our <a href="https://www.eve-mogul.com/">EVE Mogul</a> partnership. Issues are mostly my failings, and Jeronica, Randomboy50, and the rest of the team have been amazing given my shoddy uptime.<br />
<div>
<br />
<h3>
Prosper's OHLC Feed</h3>
I forgot to blog about this since the plans for Prosper's v2 codebase have only recently solidified, but we have a CREST markethistory -> OHLC feed hosted at eveprosper.com. The purpose was to run Flask/REST through its paces, but Jeronica over at <a href="https://www.eve-mogul.com/">EVE Mogul</a> whipped up a front-end and <a href="https://theneocom.com/2016/09/12/trade-recap-91116-expanding-investor-services/">Roeden at Neocom</a> has been using it in their trading forays.<br />
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<a href="https://www.eve-mogul.com/hangar#!/item/29668/prosper">
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</a><br />
This originally served me well as a learning experience, but keeping a REST endpoint up isn't as simple as originally expected. From Flask's lack of out-of-the-box multithread support, to some more linux FUBAR's below, it's been a wild ride. And now that players are legitimately counting on this resource as part of their toolchain, I figured it's time to get my act together.</div>
<div>
<br />
<h3>
The Litany of SNAFUs</h3>
What really brought the house of cards down was our move from a traditional hosting service to a full <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/homelab/">r/homelab</a> solution. Prosper has been living besides some other nerd projects (minecraft, arma, mumble, etc) and this move gets Prosper off the shitlist from the other customers when Wednesday night rolls around and I hammer box generating the show's plots. Unfortunately, for the added performance, we trade being under a benevolent tinkerer; restarts and reconfigs are more common than before. It's a huge upgrade, and I can't thank Randomboy50 enough for the support, but nothing is truly free (except the minerals you mine yourself™).<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">#nofilter #bareisbeautiful</td></tr>
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<br />
This need for stability runs headlong into a shitty part of python: package deployment. Though wheeling up and distributing individual python libraries is easy, deploying python as a service is not. There will be a second blog on the specifics, but you're largely stuck with magic-project-deploying scripting out of the box, which can get really hairy <a href="http://askubuntu.com/questions/777085/why-isnt-python-3-the-default-python-binary">if you're not careful about virtualenvs</a>.<br />
<br />
Thankfully, work turned me on to <a href="https://dh-virtualenv.readthedocs.io/">dh-virtualenv</a> and though now we're grossly overengineered with a service .deb installer, we now have a properly deployed linux service that should be far more robust going forward. It does mean that there's now "build" and "deploy" steps for updates, but now that we're tied into systemctl the endpoint should be much less likely to go down. <br />
<br />
With the last few months of work, I still expect a large amount of reengineering in our quest for a Quandl-like EVE service, but with the installer built in we can upkeep the endpoint with a lot less effort going forward. We are still behind on the <a href="https://github.com/EVEprosper/ProsperWarehouse">ProsperWarehouse</a> rollout, getting scrapers rewritten, but those modules should be a cakewalk to deploy now with <a href="https://github.com/EVEprosper/ProsperAPI">ProsperAPI</a> properly built up.<br />
<br />
Also, I've worked in a discord logging handler which will be useful for monitoring, but notes on that later ;)</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-32703105642979295472016-10-07T09:06:00.000-07:002016-10-20T13:04:42.078-07:00Stoking the Hype Train - September Economic Report<i>Editor's Note: blog was published about 30mins before CCP released <a href="https://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/clone-states-post-csm-summit-roundup/" target="_blank">updated notes about alpha clones</a>. The ban on Alpha-multiboxing means we revise back our expectations on low-end minerals in HS</i><br />
<br />
September's economic numbers were released this week. And though we got a sneak-peek in our o7 Show Market Brief, having the real numbers released to the public gives us a chance to really review the state of the EVE economy.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jrxVUaWRGdQ" width="640"></iframe><br />
<br />
I'm going to break from formula this month. Where previously I've tried to explain the technicals, I would rather take this chance as a primer for the fall/winter seasons with all the juicy features on the horizon.<br />
<br />
<h3>
What's Not In The Report</h3>
<div>
Sadly, the economic numbers were cut just before some of the biggest news was released. Though we can see some ripples thanks to <a href="http://updates.eveonline.com/coming/november/" target="_blank">Alpha Clones</a>, and some effects in the mineral markets thanks to a <a href="http://updates.eveonline.com/date/2016-09-13/" target="_blank">barge rebalance</a>, we won't see the waves from the <a href="https://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/mining-foreman-revolution/" target="_blank">Mining Booster devblog</a>.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Before we pick apart the month-gone-by, I think it's incredibly important to send out some forecasts about minerals:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>High-end minerals are going to crash thanks to the Rorqual changes</li>
<ul>
<li>6 exhumer-grade mining drones and a invulnerability button will significantly increase nullsec yields</li>
</ul>
<li><strike>Low-end minerals are going down thanks to Alpha Clones</strike></li>
<ul>
<li><strike>Alpha clones in HS will be very close to "mined minerals are free". Though total yields should not increase dramatically, costs/risks will fall.</strike></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</div>
<table><tbody>
<tr><td><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a bp.blogspot.com="" c97rtnuzz9cu1m0ndv2zd7v38-4bvjkkwcew="" fcdhvik1i="" href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5797378688270512563" https:="" imageanchor="1" s1600="" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" xqoifjadorm="" ydrine_2016-10-07_special-jita.png=""><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqC2F3l6xmlKKRfbZCE-HnVFct_bRhjmm1GWs-wkqildLJE714_IclF7Gh-lNvbczGSpnIy4SbGpxvxktagpOCq56p9v1Jj-RLCgx45KFBgU8YSa6nLC5feBCkxt_hqbk5QEliBYTBd70/s320/Zydrine_2016-10-07_SPECIAL-JITA.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdOW2ejp-U6RmdOnP2eTI9pvzshmYib-BKzbd0VDKha0xo-K-tw7_Y7fOi-8F7CvWn0aX0tnYoyQ03SFp0br3BKC2ClvgM0MgAAcuwQbZfmPof_b0oYx9BIcwTlY-bVt6xy02LpgQmClw/s1600/Megacyte_2016-10-07_SPECIAL-JITA.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdOW2ejp-U6RmdOnP2eTI9pvzshmYib-BKzbd0VDKha0xo-K-tw7_Y7fOi-8F7CvWn0aX0tnYoyQ03SFp0br3BKC2ClvgM0MgAAcuwQbZfmPof_b0oYx9BIcwTlY-bVt6xy02LpgQmClw/s320/Megacyte_2016-10-07_SPECIAL-JITA.png" width="320" /></a></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
Now, "crash" is a pretty strong term to bandy about, but there will be some very significant moves in all the materials thanks to November's changes. So much so, that I'd be hard pressed to hold stockpiles in any minerals personally. Isotopes are a less risky prospect, but the Engineering Arrays could cut POS fuel consumption more than fleet-booster charges will raise it.</div>
<div>
<br />
Also, if you are the tinfoil-chewing type... Those megacyte volumes pre-devblog sure look suspicious<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnRFsM_MEcbCkWFj_5W7fwV7tsh2BXRMXvPEvA085996DRaSNL9OLK10YLlGO5UAUJZcVQEmbkLowl8DiV49bLgOnM2MhbgTkN5Z8KxF75mCTfNeJHo87mjLqHjYWP7Jr9-VUJjaXv9vQ/s1600/Megacyte_2016-10-06_SPECIAL-JITAx.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnRFsM_MEcbCkWFj_5W7fwV7tsh2BXRMXvPEvA085996DRaSNL9OLK10YLlGO5UAUJZcVQEmbkLowl8DiV49bLgOnM2MhbgTkN5Z8KxF75mCTfNeJHo87mjLqHjYWP7Jr9-VUJjaXv9vQ/s640/Megacyte_2016-10-06_SPECIAL-JITAx.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
What Do You See</h3>
<div>
I said in <a href="https://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2016/09/fantasy-reflects-reality-august.html" target="_blank">last month's report</a> that there were some troubling headwinds. Values were okay, but month-to-month rates were very weak even for the end of summer. With September's report out, things are looking much better.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFBkcIKgKkl1GgCbyX5DlmH09xeBfDKfWC-6FsqxkjeWIMpSZWpnWXHXwsWP_A2AzLgF2B9D4R-102fIoK0ZYvAzpQUlLpX7yq5bx_WKqUj8LsAZpoBPhdUMHvLglf_TvJLN_T8sdeEW0/s1600/Jita-NetTrade_300_2016-10-06.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFBkcIKgKkl1GgCbyX5DlmH09xeBfDKfWC-6FsqxkjeWIMpSZWpnWXHXwsWP_A2AzLgF2B9D4R-102fIoK0ZYvAzpQUlLpX7yq5bx_WKqUj8LsAZpoBPhdUMHvLglf_TvJLN_T8sdeEW0/s640/Jita-NetTrade_300_2016-10-06.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjknRCrOeTXVhHBxF3jEAfaqThX-95HcHDHbNTDHKYhhHfY32TzDdH1zBjrc8dsu_VtnhlMGvBBSTgRVURuD5SbyhGXxd7MLucQVYo0J0DrOIDHd58680lYVENXub20Jdzj8jJ6wlPQ6Pc/s1600/30+Day+Pilot%2527s+License+Extension+%2528PLEX%2529_v_isk-velocity_2016-10-05.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjknRCrOeTXVhHBxF3jEAfaqThX-95HcHDHbNTDHKYhhHfY32TzDdH1zBjrc8dsu_VtnhlMGvBBSTgRVURuD5SbyhGXxd7MLucQVYo0J0DrOIDHd58680lYVENXub20Jdzj8jJ6wlPQ6Pc/s640/30+Day+Pilot%2527s+License+Extension+%2528PLEX%2529_v_isk-velocity_2016-10-05.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Both Net Trade and ISK velocity plots are looking healthy once again. Ship trade has crossed back over the 1T mark, and minerals have taken a sharp bump thanks to the barge rebalance. Also, with PLEX about to cross 1.2B, it's interesting to see the net trade values aren't quite matching the slope, pointing to a speculation bubble.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The specifics of ISK velocity are still a little lower than I'd like to see, but with trends pointing positive (and the 30d skew on the calculation) I'm reasonably happy to see EVE warming up for the winter.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoBl_xERpN1X_IDwgyKrCt-rfvq_zr0zsUcF1qXpSY01khfCy6tGZZzr3MRI96hDfOT7QN8XCSqvaQrY18dvlLPW6r3sdXRngl-5HuXmtdUL5f1HWkk6IXltbQs8ziUgIaFJr7b3sNBz8/s1600/Total-Destruction_2016-10-05.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoBl_xERpN1X_IDwgyKrCt-rfvq_zr0zsUcF1qXpSY01khfCy6tGZZzr3MRI96hDfOT7QN8XCSqvaQrY18dvlLPW6r3sdXRngl-5HuXmtdUL5f1HWkk6IXltbQs8ziUgIaFJr7b3sNBz8/s640/Total-Destruction_2016-10-05.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Lastly, looking over the PVP numbers, I think it's interesting to see a bump in value destroyed without the kill counts really moving up. We have seen in past events (Opportunities, Bloody Harvest, The Hunt, etc) where pilots were trafficked in to more combat, and the Purity of the Throne event does not seem to be driving the same activity levels.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<h3 style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Other Signals</h3>
</div>
<div>
The sink/faucet graphs are starting to look better too. Seeing Active ISK Delta (ISK leaving due to inactive accounts) shrink is heartening. That's going to be one hell of a statistic to watch in the November report once Alphas release.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_E9lmvtK_iZe5zOa-avre0RFh7V18uR7YXZ39sXDAokfbw-t9QY4Luls328cWKvlaNw3GIYBOxgMise7IcPCLCagS7nzQiej0I-3laX0WtzlVIBmYvJWxE4v73IeBbR46zT1IdEBVy1U/s1600/Sink_faucet-2016-05-15.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_E9lmvtK_iZe5zOa-avre0RFh7V18uR7YXZ39sXDAokfbw-t9QY4Luls328cWKvlaNw3GIYBOxgMise7IcPCLCagS7nzQiej0I-3laX0WtzlVIBmYvJWxE4v73IeBbR46zT1IdEBVy1U/s640/Sink_faucet-2016-05-15.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://content.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/70577/1/9aaa_top.sinks.faucets.over.time.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="288" src="https://content.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/70577/1/9aaa_top.sinks.faucets.over.time.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br />
And I'm loving this Top5 plot of the sinks/faucets. Interesting to see things rise and fall with the higher resolution. The bounty levels post WWB are extremely interesting (would like to see a mission vs rat breakdown). With levels climbing that fast, I wouldn't be surprised to hear of nerfs/rebalances some time in the next 6mo.<br />
<br />
Last but not least, the player vs NPC breakdowns of fees now with citadels is a welcome addition, and we will be looking in to tracking this as a trend in the future.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://content.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/70577/1/9aa_services_breakdown.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://content.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/70577/1/9aa_services_breakdown.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<h3>
Conclusions</h3>
</div>
<div>
Though my August outlook was cautiously pessimistic, September has the game back on a good track. October/November's numbers are going to be the real blockbusters to watch and I hope everyone has put in their EVE Vegas bets. There's still a lot of upset that can play out between now and November, when Alphas launch. Nothing was particularly surprising in September's numbers, but the new charts are a welcome addition.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-7155358361859817622016-09-23T07:00:00.000-07:002016-10-27T08:19:49.535-07:00ProsperWarehouse - Building Less-Bad Python CodeEVE Prosper is first and foremost a data science project. And though hack-and-slash has got us this far, we need to consider a proper design/environment if we want to actually expand coverage rather than just chase R/CREST/SQL bugs.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhN6t9f0LtqO60B1DwdCgMPh9C4GM6ScO6aHbvqUhKgXHTM-zhGEBjl0_VhztHeBD2b_p5LA0BlrfGunvbCET017rsfTQJInV4RIZUgPc5fLP8EvcfIhGG7U4fN1jwy_AOacGDzh3lSG5I/s1600/Prosper+v2+Stack+%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhN6t9f0LtqO60B1DwdCgMPh9C4GM6ScO6aHbvqUhKgXHTM-zhGEBjl0_VhztHeBD2b_p5LA0BlrfGunvbCET017rsfTQJInV4RIZUgPc5fLP8EvcfIhGG7U4fN1jwy_AOacGDzh3lSG5I/s400/Prosper+v2+Stack+%25281%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
There has been some work moving Prosper to a v2 codebase (<a href="https://github.com/EVEprosper" target="_blank">follow the new github projects here</a>) but <a href="https://github.com/EVEprosper/ProsperWarehouse" target="_blank">ProsperWarehouse</a> is a big step toward that design. This interface should allow us to open up a whole new field of projects, so it's critical nail this design on the first-pass before moving on.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<h3 style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
What The Hell Is This Even<br /><i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Building a Database Abstraction Layer (</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Database_abstraction_layer" style="font-weight: normal;" target="_blank">DAL</a><span style="font-weight: normal;">). </span></span></i></h3>
<div>
Up to now we have used ODBC, but there are some issues with cross-platform deployment, and database-specific weirdness that have caused issues: such as ARM and MacOS support being painful. Furthermore, relying only on ODBC means we aren't able to integrate non-SQL sources like <a href="https://www.mongodb.com/" target="_blank">MongoDB</a> or <a href="https://www.influxdata.com/" target="_blank">Influx</a> into our stack without rewriting huge chunks of code. Lastly, we have relied on raw-SQL and string-hacks sprinkled all over the original codebase, making updates a nightmare.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
There are two goals of this project:</div>
<div>
<ol>
<li>Reduce complexity for other apps by giving standardized get/put methods.</li>
<li>Allow easier conversion of datastore technologies. Change connection without changing behavior</li>
</ol>
<div>
By adopting <a href="http://pandas.pydata.org/" target="_blank">Pandas</a> as the actual data-transporter, this means everything can talk the same talk and move data around with very little effort. Though some complexity will come from cramming noSQL style data into traditional dataframes, that complexity can be abstracted under the hood and always yield the same structures when prompted.<br />
<br /></div>
<h3>
How Does It Work?<br /><span style="font-weight: normal;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">The Magic of <a href="https://docs.python.org/3/library/abc.html" target="_blank">Abstract Methods</a></span></i></span></h3>
</div>
<div>
I've never been a great object-oriented developer, and I've been especially weak with parent/children relationships. Recent projects at work have taught me some better tenants of API design and implementation, and I wanted to apply those lessons somewhere personal. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUvcGpyCk4B8Z66RuWPsE8wkz2B1PC9IaANO0X4UY7LlUpyZ8zrjHzKuT2C-oJ7DNZmTUGCWlDdU2H_6PyeQSlELss42QM3FH37FUp7eLpfywYNGIEl0eyYAiyLvDh_4Eyfl1S4kiSa0Y/s1600/Warehouse+Design.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUvcGpyCk4B8Z66RuWPsE8wkz2B1PC9IaANO0X4UY7LlUpyZ8zrjHzKuT2C-oJ7DNZmTUGCWlDdU2H_6PyeQSlELss42QM3FH37FUp7eLpfywYNGIEl0eyYAiyLvDh_4Eyfl1S4kiSa0Y/s400/Warehouse+Design.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h4>
Database Layer</h4>
<div>
Holds generic information about the connection; esentially the bulk of the API skeleton. Whatever Database() defines will need to be filled in by its children. This container doesn't do much work, but acts as the structure for the whole project under the hood.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h4>
Technology Layer</h4>
<div>
Right now, that's only <span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">SQLTable()</span>, but this is designed to hold/init all the technology-specific weirdness. Connections, query lingo, test infrastructure, configurations. This is supposed to be interchangeable so you could pull out the SQLTable and replace it with a <a href="https://www.mongodb.com/" target="_blank">MongoDB</a>- or <a href="https://www.influxdata.com/" target="_blank">Influx</a>-specific structure. This isn't 100% foolproof with some of the test hooks the way they are built in right now, but by standardizing input/output, conversion shouldn't be a catastrophe.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h4>
Datasource Layer</h4>
<div>
A connection-per-resource is the goal going forward. This means we give up JOIN functionality inside SQL, but gain an easier to manage resource that can be abstracted. All of the validation, connection setup/testing, and any special-snowflake modifications go to this layer. Also, because these have been broken out into their own py files, debug tests can be built into <span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">__main__</span> as a way for humans to actually fix problems without having to rely on shoddy debug/logging.</div>
<div>
<br />
This adds a lot of overhead for initializing a new datasource. In return for that effort we get the ability to test/use/change those connections as needed rather than going up a layer and fixing everything that connected to that source. It's not free, but should be a cost-benefit for faster development down the line.<br />
<br /></div>
<h4>
<a href="https://github.com/EVEprosper/ProsperWarehouse/blob/master/prosper/warehouse/FetchConnection.py" target="_blank">Importlib Magic</a></h4>
<div>
The real heavy lifter for the project isn't just the API object design, but a helper that turns an ugly set of imports/inits into a far simpler <span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">fetch_data_source()</span> call. I would really like to dedicate a blog to this, but TL;DR: importlib lets us interact with structures more like function-pointers. This was useful for a work project because we could execute modules by string rather than using a "main.py" structure that would need to import/execute every module in-sequence. This <i>should</i> make it so you just have to import one module and get all the dependent structure automagically.<br />
<br />
Without importlib, every datasource would have to be imported like:<br />
<br />
<iframe src="//pastebin.com/embed_iframe/WR42cqAY" style="border: none; width: 100%;"></iframe><br />
<br />
Instead now it can look like</div>
<div>
<br />
<iframe src="//pastebin.com/embed_iframe/y7gT7WmX" style="border: none; width: 100%;"></iframe><br />
A small change, but it should clean up overhead and allow for more sources to be loaded more easily. Also, this does mean you could fork the repo and build your own table_config path without going crazy trying to path everything.<br />
<br /></div>
<h3>
A Lot Of Work For What Exactly?</h3>
<div>
The point is to simplify access into the databases. With a unified design there, we can very easily lay the groundwork for a <a href="http://quandl.com/" target="_blank">Quandl-like</a> REST API. Also, with the query logic simplified/unified, writing direct apps to both fetch/process the data go from 100+ lines of SQL to 2-3 lines of connection. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
By abstracting a painful piece of the puzzle, this should make collaboration easier. This also buys us the ability to use a local-only dummy sources for testing without production data, so collaborators can run in a "headless mode". Though I doubt I will get much assistance on updating the Warehouse code, it's a price worth paying to solve some of the more tedious issues like new cron scripts or REST API design with less arduous SQL-injection risk/test.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-2169631499309887532016-09-12T07:00:00.000-07:002016-09-12T07:19:53.059-07:00Fantasy Reflects Reality - August Economic ReportThanks CCP Quant for releasing the stats AFTER the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXkhGfR9pjM&t=1795s" target="_blank">latest Prosper episode</a>. <a href="https://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/monthly-economic-report-august-2016/" target="_blank">Monthly Economic Report - August 2016</a><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://i.imgflip.com/1abz5n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://i.imgflip.com/1abz5n.jpg" width="229" /></a></div>
Though there isn't anything particularly <i>bad </i>in this month's numbers, it didn't really live up to my expectations outlined in <a href="https://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2016/08/the-slow-summer-july-economic-report.html" target="_blank">last month's summary</a>.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Tell Me What You See</h3>
<div>
It's very "second verse, same as the first" looking from July into August. A lot of the bulk stats look very good. Net trade and PVP rates are staying steady and moving as-expected ahead of the YC118.8 release with its rebalance to mining.</div>
<div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOhsOQa93vJuIx5Ndu964WfmTR5Uidf5hLClBD_nrjbJoq61Bip81ULRyO00YgHZxKetB3UlaJ_yPTSA7RiR0LlKmHMrnOrtU-RvBahkOE9C14Dp8T2DTBmX43EFL0NvvYAnMshV-Iyqk/s1600/Total-Destruction_2016-09-08.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOhsOQa93vJuIx5Ndu964WfmTR5Uidf5hLClBD_nrjbJoq61Bip81ULRyO00YgHZxKetB3UlaJ_yPTSA7RiR0LlKmHMrnOrtU-RvBahkOE9C14Dp8T2DTBmX43EFL0NvvYAnMshV-Iyqk/s640/Total-Destruction_2016-09-08.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div>
Looking back at our favorite pairing, PLEX and ISK velocity, things looks good. We're finally back over the 1B mark, and trending positive. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjk5i3sNsGPrdTngHf16fE6ReQpAgO5cxCj1WqJ_P9U505evAwBEBzolCZ5TpPPySoIx4gjDxljhzU64sTDEZ9v8lLvQa5RIKFI-82sUyAoNNR6E-2LF58QQ1x-PZ22QRHgmZH8MX2z3jg/s1600/30+Day+Pilot%2527s+License+Extension+%2528PLEX%2529_v_isk-velocity_2016-09-09.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjk5i3sNsGPrdTngHf16fE6ReQpAgO5cxCj1WqJ_P9U505evAwBEBzolCZ5TpPPySoIx4gjDxljhzU64sTDEZ9v8lLvQa5RIKFI-82sUyAoNNR6E-2LF58QQ1x-PZ22QRHgmZH8MX2z3jg/s640/30+Day+Pilot%2527s+License+Extension+%2528PLEX%2529_v_isk-velocity_2016-09-09.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div>
PLEX is going to be extremely interesting in the coming weeks thanks to Alpha Clones. Though I believe most of the positive and negative trends wash eachother out, I think there are some big changes in store for other trends outside of PLEX. Specifically if more people are logged in and interacting with the game, even with the handicapped-clones, those could put some measurable pressure on mineral consumption and ISK velocities. <br />
<br />
Also, most of the discussions I've seen around Alpha Clones center around "free ISK" and though the effects won't be zero (esp for skill trading... free baseclones), I think the pain of exploiting Alphas will tamp down most of the worst worries. Lastly, we wouldn't be getting the F2P program if Team Security weren't up to sniffing out illicit activity, so I am not overly worried about massive botting rings.<br />
<br /></div>
<h3>
Troubling Headwinds</h3>
<div>
What has me worried in the short term isn't so much the levels. Absolute readings from all indicators are looking good. But looking at the month-to-month <b>rates</b> have me worried. Looking at the wallet statistics, I'm happy with the total ISK, I'm happy with the sinks/faucets, but I'm not happy about the rate of wallet growth or ISK velocity. </div>
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<div>
I expected after WWB+Citadel that players would be able to recoup their lost wealth and start making roads toward regaining normal. And though the sink/faucet chart says activity is returning to normal, the wallet status graph says total ISK out there to work with is diminished. The trend isn't reason to raise alarm, but I will be watching these stats going into the winter.<br />
<br /></div>
<h3>
Drawing Conclusions</h3>
<div>
I'm a big fan of <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/" target="_blank">Marketplace</a> (and if I didn't have to work for a living, I'd produce those kinds of stories for EVE). And if you follow their Friday Roundup, a recent theme with the IRL economic numbers are "it's good... but...". I have a similar feeling about this month's report; I expected trends to start pointing upward into the fall, but we're just seeing flatness. We also aren't seeing any fallout +/- from No Man's Sky, which is just a little weird given the bad press post-launch, but high engagement in a scifi property tangentially linked to EVE; I was anticipating some conversion to come back. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The devs at CCP seem to be happy with the trends, but I remain slightly worried. Things will most likely be totally fine, but there are some troubling headwinds in the latest numbers to just be wary of. I fully expect to have more interesting news to report in the September and October numbers.</div>
<br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-23833788018078856062016-08-19T09:41:00.003-07:002016-08-19T09:41:55.149-07:00Switching to Sublime - #DevfleetFridayThis isn't strictly EVE related, but <a href="https://talkpython.fm/" target="_blank">Talk Python To Me</a> has inspired me to post some more dev/meta related content. <br />
<br />
To those who have worked with me on code, you'll know at least two things:<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>I'm a total luddite when it comes to adding helpful tools to my belt (IDE's specifically)</li>
<li>I live and work in Windows when I can</li>
</ol>
<div>
But my new job has me working in Mac and Unix far more often, so my favorite editor <a href="https://notepad-plus-plus.org/" target="_blank">Notepad++</a> is out. After touring editors and IDEs for a replacement, I have settled on my new home: <a href="https://www.sublimetext.com/" target="_blank">Sublime</a> </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Sublime New World</h3>
<div>
"Why Sublime?" was a pretty easy question for me to answer: very cross-platform, and a deep utility library. In fact, I've pointed my configs at dropbox so I can easily work in the same Sublime across machines. Also, the cross-language formatting profiles are pretty slick, and was able to get things working the way I wanted without too much pain.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But Sublime really wins with its <a href="https://packagecontrol.io/" target="_blank">Package Control</a>. Nearly anything you would want can be added to the editor in just a couple commands. And by-and-large, they're easy to set up and use right out of the box. Also, many of the packages I've dug into are mostly python, so it's been easy to fix small bugs.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Personally, <a href="http://www.sublimelinter.com/en/latest/" target="_blank">SublimeLinter</a> has been the best thing to happen to my code recently. Though it took some effort to get working with python3 on the Mac, having the tattle-tale highlights for bad code and bad practices has me writing far more consistent code. Writing a .pylintrc file is a little obnoxious, and it doesn't validate virtualenv packages (only ones installed in main site-packages), once it's configured it's a real godsend for keeping my code in line.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
My one knock against the platform is the need to memorize a large number of shortcuts that aren't inherently obvious. There are some <a href="http://stackoverflow.com/questions/32127604/how-to-wrap-each-line-in-quotes-in-sublimetext" target="_blank">really slick tricks in the arsenal,</a> but it feels very VIMy to have them handy</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Things I Miss From N++</h3>
<h4>
Search Highlighting</h4>
<div>
N++ has this amazing multi-color highlighting tool that makes traversing large or complicated code blocks easy. <a href="https://github.com/SublimeText/WordHighlight" target="_blank">Word Highlight</a> is an okay replacement, but it doesn't do multi-highlight the way I'd like. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h4>
Project Searching</h4>
<div>
Another very slick N++ feature is its extended search. Able to quickly see results, contexts, and previous searches in a docked pane was another useful tool I miss having. Sublime has an extended search, but it pops open in a new document, and doesn't easily fold the way N++ does.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h4>
Multi-Pane Interface</h4>
<div>
This is a total nitpick. Sublime absolutely does have multi-pane views, and they are actually a step up in the aggregate. But my one complaint is duplicating a file isn't really obvious. The "New View Into File" command isn't mapped, and I'd rather r-click a tab and send to pane.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Free or Fee?</h3>
</div>
<div>
My one complaint about Sublime is its licensing. Though it has a winrar-type "free forever*" mode, it complains semi-randomly at save-time to purchase a license. At $70, I think the fee is a little steep given how much competition is out there, and its key method (RSA hasn?) is not super intuitive. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I'm not at all against paying for a thing, but recently many enterprise services have really stepped up their game and spoiled me with their set-and-forget memberships. Services like <a href="https://www.xsplit.com/" target="_blank">XSplit</a> and <a href="http://www.adobe.com/creativecloud.html" target="_blank">Adobe</a> just work, and though I pay pretty handsomely for the memberships in the long run, I'd almost rather buy Sublime through a Patreon model. At the absolute least, I would like an account auth primary key, even if the current key method works as an offline backup.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-8471795352921065712016-08-08T07:00:00.000-07:002016-09-12T10:02:39.651-07:00The Slow Summer - July Economic ReportIt's been a busy summer, despite the hiatus. The latest <a href="https://www.blogger.com/"><span id="goog_551300122"></span>Economic Report</a> numbers were particularly weak, and I was considering skipping the month. But <a href="http://marketsforisk.blogspot.is/2016/08/eve-economic-report-for-july-isk-added.html" target="_blank">MarketsForISK</a> has been publishing some serious articles and Delonewolf over at EVE Talk posted a review. <br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0VeNqpdXkO8" width="640"></iframe><br />
<br />
Though my fellow pundits took some serious dives into the data, I'd like to counterpoint with a more brisk review. Be sure to check them out if you want more depth, but let's take a more general look at the stats.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Tell Me What You See</h3>
<div>
Ohboy, though <a href="https://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2016/07/beating-heat-june-econ-report.html" target="_blank">last month's review</a> was largely positive, thanks to "better than expected" activity metrics from the Serpentis event, July crashed down hard. The month-to-month sinks and faucets chart was particularly troubling.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTHnoVZyGSuIO0BWpiUcWv120-XabSGzwbHKUwopzSEgWRel9eFsKaqMendCs1YFAp8uDglnsZUW9eUfwdO7EyRIPiQtdfAOJ7aQhQXcPQYfHwCaosR0NUyjQbri7POJxTqEk8qDkHKGc/s1600/Sink_faucet-2016-05-15.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTHnoVZyGSuIO0BWpiUcWv120-XabSGzwbHKUwopzSEgWRel9eFsKaqMendCs1YFAp8uDglnsZUW9eUfwdO7EyRIPiQtdfAOJ7aQhQXcPQYfHwCaosR0NUyjQbri7POJxTqEk8qDkHKGc/s640/Sink_faucet-2016-05-15.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Though specific ISK sink/faucet numbers are in-line with the expected baseline, the Active ISK Delta (money leaving through inactive accounts) is worrying. June's retraction was expected (WWB + Citadel) but July keeping up the trend is what concerns me. Pair this with my favorite stat, ISK Velocity, and we're seeing a much harder retraction than I originally expected.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJsv1CpwrRBipcRnXB1A6qc5AR9HHhqWq2wV2uRdGLoaseeIs0Dl7TeiFzi3Ly6W2kkq2nAm011s2tsR5-3E0BiEdvUJZkYqcpgM-mNdHPMpZXHUolkUd5AuyURm32MpYaFZJWZyydHmQ/s1600/30+Day+Pilot%2527s+License+Extension+%2528PLEX%2529_v_isk-velocity_2016-08-05.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJsv1CpwrRBipcRnXB1A6qc5AR9HHhqWq2wV2uRdGLoaseeIs0Dl7TeiFzi3Ly6W2kkq2nAm011s2tsR5-3E0BiEdvUJZkYqcpgM-mNdHPMpZXHUolkUd5AuyURm32MpYaFZJWZyydHmQ/s640/30+Day+Pilot%2527s+License+Extension+%2528PLEX%2529_v_isk-velocity_2016-08-05.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div>
With the latest <a href="http://sandciderandspaceships.blogspot.com/2016/07/blog-banter-77-malaise.html" target="_blank">Blog Banter</a> stirring the EVE Is Dying pot, these numbers could validate those looking to catastrophize. I would not be so hasty to eulogize though.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Finding The Light</h3>
<div>
I don't think the numbers are all bad. Looking at the net-trade and PVP stats, things are still pretty positive. Are they breaking any records? No. But the activity is high enough to to be "normal" without having to panic.</div>
<div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhG9jLpLlZNz1_ryrbW5GvUxeiXguezNQVDRzylMhySrgEukvYtGbJtJ1SYImuSx2sVFDUpHbxKt6P7AwUSWdM2Es2no5TlFEf04-yRuhzqYcE-rw7rKSSWA2FAd8UXLcrpUem672shA_o/s1600/Total-Destruction_2016-08-05.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhG9jLpLlZNz1_ryrbW5GvUxeiXguezNQVDRzylMhySrgEukvYtGbJtJ1SYImuSx2sVFDUpHbxKt6P7AwUSWdM2Es2no5TlFEf04-yRuhzqYcE-rw7rKSSWA2FAd8UXLcrpUem672shA_o/s640/Total-Destruction_2016-08-05.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">NOTE: August dip due to database issue</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilMXYVjt4A8UFTErg25LA5-aWQ6kNn2uDxDtYO9u5o2DKdgwmjCutQfr3UyS1I7KxKNqi-uJ1iq-atACtSZboVlI42J2L0UWdedDq52SC4NOA5ZYCcdo95gcl-S918GUBJb3_Ck20IRaA/s1600/Jita-NetTrade_300_2016-08-05.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilMXYVjt4A8UFTErg25LA5-aWQ6kNn2uDxDtYO9u5o2DKdgwmjCutQfr3UyS1I7KxKNqi-uJ1iq-atACtSZboVlI42J2L0UWdedDq52SC4NOA5ZYCcdo95gcl-S918GUBJb3_Ck20IRaA/s640/Jita-NetTrade_300_2016-08-05.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Most market watchers have focused on the month-to-month net trade statistics (down 10-15% each month), but I've avoided them because I think they're a bit of a red herring. For one, Feb-May numbers are much higher-than-average due to a series of effects all running together; so cooling should be expected. Secondly, I think just talking about total-trade isn't as useful as splitting it up. My analysis chops up the RMT markets (which make up a significant portion of the pie) and let us focus on the pieces. This way we can see how each is moving to color the whole picture.<br />
<br />
Material trade continues to be a hot market. Those that are active in the game are still getting their content. Also, as I've been saying since the last o7 show, it's an excellent time to be generating cash. PLEX prices have only just recovered to the 1B mark (<a href="https://community.eveonline.com/news/news-channels/eve-online-news/at-xiv-auction-and-seeding/" target="_blank">thanks to the AT auction</a>). The slump in the ship trade has me worried, but looking at the PVP statistics, it's hard to figure out what exactly is going on with PVP stats staying even while ships traded falls.</div>
<div>
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<a href="http://content.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/70454/1/9b_isk.float.3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="288" src="https://content.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/70454/1/9b_isk.float.3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Lastly, we're still not quite seeing the cash-recovery I was expecting though, so there is still a lot of work left to be done to get back to truly normal levels.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Drawing Conclusions</h3>
</div>
<div>
It's easy to catastrophize in the summer. Numbers tend to slump most at the end of July, campaigns slow, and CCP's news crawls through July/August due to vacation time. I still believe there's enough on the plate this fall to be excited about, that as long as people don't get too bitter, there will be content to come back to once vacations end. <br />
<br />
Looking externally, No Man's Sky is probably going to make the August numbers particularly bad. Though, I do expect it to have a positive effect in the longer term, reigniting the hard-scifi spark that only a few games can, and perhaps bringing some contingent back for nostalgia.<br />
<br />
If I may dip into Blog Banter territory and editorialize: it's a terrible time for picking out trends. With the seasonal ebb and flow is at it's lowest point, drawing a line between June/July numbers would be Fox News grade cherry picking (o/ Sion). Though I personally share a lot of <a href="http://www.lowseclifestyle.com/2016/07/blog-banter-77-it-is-sad-thing-but-one.html" target="_blank">Sugar Kyle's feelings of IRL vs EVE</a>, and have been drifting more and more away from active play into a devfleet/metagame kind of role; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9mT9DNysAo" target="_blank">like Jonny Pew</a>, I just cannot drop the game entirely. Is EVE going into a new chapter? Absolutely. Dying? MMO's are dying, but I don't think EVE is doomed yet.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-61390575345364468442016-07-13T09:57:00.001-07:002016-09-12T10:03:02.068-07:00Beating The Heat - June Econ ReportCCP Quant continues to deliver the economic data. June data released last week, and though summer is traditionally quiet, let's see if the data bears that out. We did release our own market summary for the o7 show, but Quant's numbers released a good week after that show<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/a4gH2zhah2k" width="640"></iframe><br />
<br />
<h3>
ISK Velocity</h3>
<div>
As I said in <a href="https://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2016/06/reading-tea-leaves-may-econ-report.html" target="_blank">last month's review</a>, ISK velocity is the first stat I jump to. I have this hope that ISK velocity will be useful in building better PLEX forecasts, and it's a good market activity metric to pair against PVP numbers. Now with the benefit of hindsight, it's a little easier to draw the correlation between ISK velocity and PLEX direction. With things cooling to a new normal level, I'm looking forward to tempering expectations a little better going forward.</div>
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When it comes to PLEX's record slide over the spring, it's useful to picture ISK velocity and PLEX prices together. February had skill trading release, March/April had World War Bee, May had Citadels. In this historic period of cash demand, PLEX (like gold) acts as an easy way to get at that liquidity. With big door-busting features calmed down for the summer, I'm happy to see ISK velocity staying strong (~0.7) vs pre-skill-trading levels. <br />
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<i>Small Note for the stats nerds</i>: Quant's report uses a bi-directional 30d moving average to calculate ISK velocity. I would rather use one that only looks backwards. Will probably tweak the stat slightly going forward, which will take us out of alignment with Quant's official charts.</div>
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When it comes to activity statistics, I'm actually surprised how well June did in aggregate. Though we're seeing a general cooling, we're actually above the points I originally spitballed. Specifically, the slight uptick in value destroyed is interesting. I'm not ready to pin this entirely on the new <a href="http://updates.eveonline.com/date/2016-06-28/#6JpcX" target="_blank">event/opportunity system</a>, but these are positive first metrics for a contentious feature.</div>
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Citadel Math</h3>
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Though the general statistics look good, Citadels are weird. We can't yet track them in our stats (though recent updates have <a href="https://market.fuzzwork.co.uk/api/" target="_blank">cleared up the API blindspot</a>) and a wild west of bug-or-feature has made it hard to get a solid hand around Citadels in the long term.</div>
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<a href="https://www.themittani.com/features/ghost-orders-explained" target="_blank">Rhivre has been the authority</a> when it comes to citadels. Specifically, she brought up that the June Faucet/Sink graph looked particularly light. Quant has responded that <a href="https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=6555906#post6555906" target="_blank">Citadel data should be in the report</a>.</div>
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The sinks retracted a lot more than many originally expected. Also, the big dip in Active ISK Delta (money leaving the system because of account lapse) is mildly troubling. Though April/May proved to be record setting in terms of ISK sinks, June returns us back to the ~45T level. Half because blueprint outlays (citadels) have tapered off, and half because a chunk of broker fees are now going to players in Citadels rather than being properly destroyed. </div>
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Citadels remain a big topic in many market channels. Specific recent highlights are things like a 0% fee Citadel dropping near Jita, and Hek not being in the citadel exclusion list. Also, though there are some big bugs out there (Citadel timers are immune to TiDi), the strategic value of these structures is coming into focus. We stand by the current advice that summer is the time to lock in positions. There are a lot of set pieces that should make the fall very interesting when activity picks up.<br />
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The Rest Of The Summer</h3>
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Coming into late July/August, things should be very quiet. It's a heavy vacation season, and CCP has historically been very quiet in August. General activity is staying well stoked given the traditional retraction, and it will be up to CCP to keep that fire stoked with activities. Again, it's my strong advice that this is the time to grind up that cash, stash away those cheap PLEX, and generally recuperate ahead of the fall. Many signals are pointing to an interesting season coming up and Alliance Tournament and EVE Vegas should get the hype trains moving.</div>
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Meanwhile, at ProsperHQ, we're still chugging away on our tool revamp. Work starts in earnest this week on our data backend, and goals to get you all access to our data continues roughly on schedule. Once a few more pieces come together, expect a "state of Prosper" blog in the next few weeks! </div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-76772810381866639432016-06-09T08:00:00.000-07:002016-09-12T10:03:23.058-07:00Reading the Tea Leaves - May Econ ReportProps to CCP Quant sticking to a pretty reliable reporting schedule; <a href="https://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/monthly-economic-report-may-2016/" target="_blank">May's Monthly Economic Report</a> has been released! I know the report can be a little sparse for the general reader, so let's walk through it. Also, if you're interested in the specific stats, go check out Quant's EVE Vegas talk:<br />
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What does Lockefox Look For In These Reports?</h3>
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I like to jump straight to ISK velocity first thing. It has quickly become my favorite stat as an effective short-hand for "heat" or "energy" in the economic system. Also, when paired against PLEX, it helps complete the picture of cash-ISK supply/demand; proving out the demand side of the equation.<br />
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Personally, I've found the period since YC118.2 launched (skill trading) constantly surprising. With one feature, ISK velocities were doubled, and though it would be easy to think that it was just a flash, indicators have remained incredibly strong for several months. I continue to expect precipitous falls in each economic report, and I am surprised every month by just how much activity is out there.<br />
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To be an armchair-developer for a moment: ISK velocity stands as the primary indicator I would grade releases and development progress on. Where PVP activity is a decent waterline for some balance changes, World War Bee proves that can be a fickle line to balance against. PCU numbers are another popular open metric, but tend to be extremely noisy and seasonal, and less useful in the long run due to larger trends. ISK Velocity shows more directly cluster-wide activity and patch-performance.<br />
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Furthermore, it's a useful metric to explain some of the unprecedented PLEX performance since the start of the year. Looking at total cash supply, it’s very strange to see a protracted period of cash-decline. These coffers will need to be replaced, and though prices may be weak right now, PLEX should rise as balance sheets move back into the black.<br />
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What's Special About May's Report</h3>
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The second piece of the econ reports I jump to is the faucet/sink accounting. A lot of armchair-developers like to wield faucet/sink mechanics haphazardly in their F&I ravings, and disregard the complexity of monetary policy. And though I have my own opinions about some faucets, CCP Quant's reports show balances moving in good directions while <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Eve/comments/4gqfku/ccp_manipulating_plex_price_or_who/d2jxn11">using sneakier and less mechanically direct methods</a> than I would have originally considered.<br />
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April and May's reports show a couple of interesting trends.<br />
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First, as <a href="https://twitter.com/CCPQuant/status/727518219532156929">Quant pointed out in April's report</a>, it's the first time we've really seen a net-negative balance sheet here; and May continues that trend. And second, the the amount of cash in the Active ISK Delta is particularly high given the launch of the brave-new-world of Citadels. This is probably due to some amount of summer slump, and a healthy amount of fallout from WWB winding down. I'll be interested to see just where Active ISK Delta goes in the longer term.<br />
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It’s tempting to read the nearly 2 Trillion ISK shortfall as a bad omen, but if you zoom in on the production numbers, you'll see where all that ISK went: Citadels<br />
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It's hard to talk about how much impact Citadels will have in the long run yet. I think we need one more month of statistics before we can really see the entire citadel picture solidify. Pair that with the blind-spot the CREST/XML API's have for tracking citadels, and it is extremely difficult to do independent analysis of their rollout.<br />
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Other Trends</h3>
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I find it interesting pairing the general kill statistics vs ISK velocity. We see a weak correlation during the YC118.3 spike around WWB, but ISK velocities remained strong until the end of May despite a retraction of PVP activity. Though I expect PVP numbers to stay weak over the summer, the general activity statistics should remain strong.<br />
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If I were to peer into my crystal ball for the summer, I would hope we're heading toward a period of stability. Skill Trading, WWB, and Citadels moved so much liquid ISK around, and destroyed a good amount of that cash and material, that I would think many need a period of reprieve to recover from the hangover. Also, the destruction rate for citadels is higher than I expected, so we should still see a somewhat higher clip for material consumption.<br />
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I originally pointed at PLEX and figured we would start slowly swinging the balance back, as people move to refill their coffers, but sales and general instability have dropped the price again from 900M to 850M. I do expect a hot fall/winter after this summer, so it would be an excellent chance to recuperate and prepare for new changes and territory battles in the most valuable pieces of space.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-13006887549747501502016-02-16T08:00:00.000-08:002016-10-20T13:07:27.688-07:00Skill Point Trading - Follow UpI posted two weeks ago a <a href="http://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2016/01/skill-trading-forecasting-brainmeat.html" target="_blank">forecast on the brainmeat market</a>, and I wanted to review those predictions and talk about where I see the market, as well as some hits and misses.<br />
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<h3>
Extractor AUR Prices</h3>
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Though I am somewhat upset about the specifics about the AUR/$/PLEX prices, we hit the targets on Extractors right on the head. I would have preferred if injectors were closer to 5/PLEX rather than the 4/PLEX we hit, but especially with generous sales directly during February I think the extractor market is exactly where it should be considering.</div>
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I was a little fuzzy after the specific packages were announced whether we'd hit closer to the 800AUR or 900AUR levels, but it looks like an 800AUR equivalency with PLEX is a decent place to peg the price to. Now, it's worth mentioning that the PLEX conversion rate and the $->AUR rate are not the same dollar-for-dollar. Especially under the current sale, directly buying AUR results in a bonus 1000AUR vs PLEX.</div>
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I do find it frustrating as a customer that my $20 or $100 can yield such wildly different returns, and that those returns are not all strictly transmutable. But this is a core design of the AUR system where it's hard to go both ways between ISK<->AUR instead having to go through middle items that may have wildly different returns. I'd very much rather see a more direct path between ISK<->AUR<->PLEX so that the $->ISK rates were simple for customers. But I seriously doubt CCP and I will ever see eye-to-eye on this case.</div>
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<h3>
Injector Prices</h3>
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<a href="https://gist.github.com/lockefox/e73d1d4b28cfa103157b" target="_blank">R Source</a> </div>
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Injectors have me very worried. In the entire lead up, I had expected that ISK/SP would be discounted vs the PLEX rate. This would provide a negative-feedback-loop vs PLEX and would preserve the balance between Character Bazaar and Injectors. Even <a href="http://imgur.com/a/woTPG" target="_blank">CCP Quant's Bazaar Analysis</a> pointed to this discount trend.</div>
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This positive valuation has me very concerned. Simply put: this makes EVE free-to-play if you sell off your SP. I think this leads to a lot of instability, since it will drive a positive-feedback-loop on PLEX demand without any sort of negative counterbalance to keep the system in balance. Left unchecked, we could see a situation where MPCT + Extractors on all 3 slots of an account could actually net a positive return. Whereas, if ISK/SP is discounted vs the PLEX-rate, it gives deep discounts to utility characters without making them free outright.<br />
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Now, over the course of writing this, the injector market has dipped a couple times under that parity line. And I will be keeping a very close eye on the market over the coming days. This heat might just be a factor of novelty, and a steady state may take a couple weeks to settle down.<br />
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<h3>
Other Markets</h3>
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<div>
Other markets are actually kind of hilarious. I expected people to want to trade in Injectors/Extractors, but I didn't expect large markets to liquidate to change positions. PLEX was particularly interesting because the volumes traded to jump on the AUR bandwagon drove actual traded volumes crazy minimal impact to the total orders on the market.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9DY0P4x14C1m9XIg_uTlEKLjq-zIliL5hRoYMI5Az38HQ94o6Jl90A7dWRq0iRyABlzicRqR1EdJhCv3SzOjMAxYb1WAtjUEW6y84z69wvfGwQEjU5LgLWVOZPXc97mxFV2-JuSi_9dg/s1600/30+Day+Pilot%2527s+License+Extension+%2528PLEX%2529_2016-02-15_SPECIAL-CRESTx.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9DY0P4x14C1m9XIg_uTlEKLjq-zIliL5hRoYMI5Az38HQ94o6Jl90A7dWRq0iRyABlzicRqR1EdJhCv3SzOjMAxYb1WAtjUEW6y84z69wvfGwQEjU5LgLWVOZPXc97mxFV2-JuSi_9dg/s640/30+Day+Pilot%2527s+License+Extension+%2528PLEX%2529_2016-02-15_SPECIAL-CRESTx.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div>
With net trade up so high, I expect there to be a lot of good trading to jump in on for the next week outside of the SP trade, with an opportunity to jump on the Injector/Extractor market coming by the end of the month. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Though this hasn't stopped some people from going completely nutso:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://zkillboard.com/kill/51920359/" target="_blank">First Person To Lose Injectors (x10) in PVP</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Eve/comments/45ee6e/eveboard_the_list_of_pilots_and_their_sp_before/" target="_blank">EVEboard before the patch</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.themittani.com/news/skill-point-goldrush" target="_blank">TMC Report on SP Market</a></li>
<li><a href="http://massivelyop.com/2016/02/15/eve-player-uses-28000-of-skill-injectors-to-create-max-character/" target="_blank">IronBank Spends 28,000USD To "Speed Run" EVE</a></li>
</ul>
<div>
Speaking as a pilot with a 200M+ main, and over 500M SP between all his characters, I don't think there's going to be many drives for "perfect" characters over the 200M mark. There is glory in being first or second, but there's precious little utility in having a truly perfect character. It will be interesting to hear CCP Quant's official report, but I expect that most consumers are in the first penalty bracket from 5-50M SP once we get to the 30d mark. </div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-46445781131147937412016-02-05T09:56:00.001-08:002016-02-05T09:56:24.578-08:00EVE Prosper Market Show - EP051 - Prepare for Skill Trading<audio controls=""><br />
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Direct link: <a href="http://dl.eveprosper.com/podcast/Prosper_2016-02-04_EP051.mp3">http://dl.eveprosper.com/podcast/Prosper_2016-02-04_EP051.mp3</a><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SzPGAMGNH60" width="640"></iframe><br />
<br />
<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1NZQ160Q96Y36rNs8TclUjRYknT-Cv-edwQhQZNtMdXg/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank">Show Slides</a><br />
<a href="https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B9v4WV8DEJUPQnNwNXhHelYwclk&usp=sharing" target="_blank">Raw Charts</a><br />
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<h3>
News:</h3>
<div>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://csmwatch.com/" target="_blank">CSMwatch interviews</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://csmwatch.com/2016/02/04/csm-watch-presents-csm-11-analysis-show-3/" target="_blank">CSM11 Analysis Show #3</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="http://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2016/02/how-i-data-science-hunting-for-trends.html" target="_blank">How I Data Science - Hunting For Trends</a></li>
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Podcast:</h4>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-77076725722813019992016-02-04T11:18:00.001-08:002016-02-04T11:18:33.763-08:00How I Data Science - Hunting For TrendsLong time friend Blake at <a href="http://k162space.com/">k162space.com</a> has been pumping out some really <a href="http://k162space.com/2016/01/29/spotmarket-pivot-and-resample/" target="_blank">exciting work around NPC-kill rates</a>. He recently poked me about taking that raw data forward to something with more teeth, and after futzing with it for about an hour, came out with some interesting data.<br />
<br />
His inquiry reminded me of a common question I receive: How do I get into data science? So, this blog is going to be a bit more long/technical than the recent fare. We're going to walk step-by-step through the investigation process and I'll try to illustrate what I see as we go along. The readouts were generated using <a href="http://www.jmp.com/en_us/software/jmp.html" target="_blank">JMP</a>, only because it's faster to use than R. This entire process can be done in R, and I can revisit with more specific R samples if its requested.<br />
<br />
Let's take a look:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRWcH7VS-bderwg_6eC_ZXdPp2nc2ZqS5XAZiicKxMdukS6nNmik-XUsOAuvLjZ8bQjdOgvT8P1BpJXnTQWsnUz6SD8iQzAxm8ZzgjqZxaATlU_mLCsmpjZaaAuDYpdeaQXN85EliE618/s1600/Angel_line_prelim.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRWcH7VS-bderwg_6eC_ZXdPp2nc2ZqS5XAZiicKxMdukS6nNmik-XUsOAuvLjZ8bQjdOgvT8P1BpJXnTQWsnUz6SD8iQzAxm8ZzgjqZxaATlU_mLCsmpjZaaAuDYpdeaQXN85EliE618/s640/Angel_line_prelim.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<a name='more'></a><h3>
Getting Started</h3>
<a href="https://gist.github.com/lockefox/067d5e7d8381f190e1ce" target="_blank"><b>Raw Data</b></a><br />
<br />
I like the <a href="https://www.otexts.org/fpp/2" target="_blank">Forecaster's Toolbox</a> as a jumping off point. We're looking for a few things when we start:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Basic visualizations: look for obvious trends</li>
<ul>
<li>Simple time-series graph shows no obvious correlation</li>
<li>Simple scatter plots in case there's something obvious</li>
</ul>
<li>Check scales: linear vs log vs sqrt</li>
<ul>
<li>SUM_factionKills does not have much variance</li>
<li>log/sqrt price doesn't seem like a good idea</li>
</ul>
<li>Skew data</li>
<ul>
<li>+/- a few days to look for lead/lag </li>
</ul>
<li>Other useful indicators</li>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2014/11/how-its-made-price-flagging.html" target="_blank">Deviation from moving average</a> (more on this later)</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<a href="https://gist.github.com/lockefox/8351e91a7d69711fb1a7" target="_blank"><b>Processed Data</b></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This gives us some basic trends to start comparing. Nothing is jumping out from the data at this point yet.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Scatter Plot</h3>
<div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiGDNn75MES-5c8O4R5mkvWG0vNmmOqHSvuCjcEh9KsaUF8rcrVvt4488qam1b_MClt7xZmpEYlMhZZZ3DWZUuARI1m3RqPgeuoHVgMT8gB9UOSMns5KV6y4jvCAqmGOnPpxYaflVHkA4/s1600/angel_scatter_prelim.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="470" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiGDNn75MES-5c8O4R5mkvWG0vNmmOqHSvuCjcEh9KsaUF8rcrVvt4488qam1b_MClt7xZmpEYlMhZZZ3DWZUuARI1m3RqPgeuoHVgMT8gB9UOSMns5KV6y4jvCAqmGOnPpxYaflVHkA4/s640/angel_scatter_prelim.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div>
What we really want is a <u>NPC-kills vs price correlation</u>. With that kind of relationship, we can basically automate investments off a single number. <br />
<br />
At first crack, we're really not seeing anything. The vertical spread, especially around the median factionKills value (~780k/day) is showing no viable trend to really predict with. At best, we're seeing that variation/volatility is highest on median days, but that doesn't give us anything meaningful to work with in finding a trend to leverage. Only prediction on which days might complete orders, not what price we can expect to get.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHHStc1SyYLcxE-g7QSOuRCoIAYKtoSf_2SQhPS8jsRY0iwOZPCULFPix9Bz6LGz2lZ9jY6qHvF4wjYoR9Rp5ptywjBABaUAoWGuGtVp1HudyCZx3sk9QB0I_O1SnNVsoyJtCh7_k_FGE/s1600/Angel_line_prelim-skewed-750k-qs.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHHStc1SyYLcxE-g7QSOuRCoIAYKtoSf_2SQhPS8jsRY0iwOZPCULFPix9Bz6LGz2lZ9jY6qHvF4wjYoR9Rp5ptywjBABaUAoWGuGtVp1HudyCZx3sk9QB0I_O1SnNVsoyJtCh7_k_FGE/s640/Angel_line_prelim-skewed-750k-qs.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Looking at the skewed data (+1 to +5 days) there are some better clustering, but not better trending. There's still a very obvious failure of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertical_line_test" target="_blank">vertical line test</a> which make it very hard to find a X->Y trend. Also, some of the price outliers that were obvious in the first time-series graph are really showing to be problematic in this clustering view.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Back to the Drawing Board</h3>
</div>
<div>
As I have said in previous dev blogs, I really like if we can find a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution" target="_blank">normal-shaped</a> trend. Even if we can find a correlation, it will be really hard to use effectively if it's not either linear OR normal. Working outside those bounds gets difficult fast, so let's try to get back to the sorts of things we know well.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj61T4HHlgxkTtcUsocb9Qfg70rA8dk6UtEyH4ZN7NLtCO2RHy6MkB13O4rDcv2MjB0aVLNsy8JGxoPEYzExVfLFcT1tMiB0QsiFaTFBtdIVkglcMzi-1Q0BQZwRHeoPpkLs3u_kAgwgBs/s1600/Angel_price_destruction_summary3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj61T4HHlgxkTtcUsocb9Qfg70rA8dk6UtEyH4ZN7NLtCO2RHy6MkB13O4rDcv2MjB0aVLNsy8JGxoPEYzExVfLFcT1tMiB0QsiFaTFBtdIVkglcMzi-1Q0BQZwRHeoPpkLs3u_kAgwgBs/s640/Angel_price_destruction_summary3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Thankfully, SUM_factionKills is reasonably normal. But as we have discussed previously, <a href="http://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2014/11/how-its-made-price-flagging.html" target="_blank">prices really aren't</a>. But, <a href="http://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2015/07/aspiring-harri-seldon-developing-price.html" target="_blank">deviation/volatility</a> are normal-shaped trends. This is starting to look like something we can at least statistically flag on, even if a linear relationship might be out of reach.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsMdIcNFYkqONanZTR3wc9ij5yjU-l8ke8bvPcW0MAyw3a4qJtroXGE2X3mjbzBloc-tjPZ5ezzAKESZbA-auXQkDMwEmCcmqyjKOa2hObOW4gqelL5YrMW-VF2YNOQSYMlMZrwlN8IAo/s1600/Angel_scatter_deviation2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="572" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsMdIcNFYkqONanZTR3wc9ij5yjU-l8ke8bvPcW0MAyw3a4qJtroXGE2X3mjbzBloc-tjPZ5ezzAKESZbA-auXQkDMwEmCcmqyjKOa2hObOW4gqelL5YrMW-VF2YNOQSYMlMZrwlN8IAo/s640/Angel_scatter_deviation2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
Now that we've clipped out the high-flier, and zoomed in on just the Machariel, things are looking a lot more useful. Though the price/5d avg trends are essentially random, the deviation trend is looking far more linear. This is extremely promising.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
What I See</h3>
<div>
This preliminary result confirms a baseline assumption:</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>Higher ratting counts will lead to more NPC drops hitting the market and increased supply will drive down the price.</i></blockquote>
With the little bit of data, we can see a pretty strong correlation between deviation from the 5-day trend and total NPC kills in Angel space. Now, that isn't to say we've "solved" the system yet, there are still a lot of troubling points:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>The sample size is just barely big enough to work with. </li>
<ul>
<li>Don't like declaring trends without at least 60d of data to back them up</li>
</ul>
<li>There are still some troubling fliers</li>
<ul>
<li>Though the low and high ends of the graph are telling, there's some points around 800k-850k that make me slightly worried.</li>
</ul>
<li> Deviation/Volatility should be 0-centered. </li>
<ul>
<li>In a local period of decline. Without positive swings, it's hard to confirm the "less ratting = higher prices" part of the equation</li>
</ul>
<li>Flavor of the Month (FOTM)</li>
<ul>
<li>Though the Machariel has been traditionally popular, it's easy to miss forest for trees with other indicators such as total sell volumes and other activity metrics</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
This is an extremely interesting first result out of the data at hand. Though there are still plenty of points to be cautious about, this is enough confirmation to keep digging and collecting data. Also, this being a derivative trend, I worry about leveraging it directly without a second signal to back it up.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Also, just to show the entire picture, we might need to include a <a href="https://www.otexts.org/fpp/4/4" target="_blank">fit-quality metric</a> as a go/no-go boundary. Where the Machariel/Dramiel are traditionally popular, the Cynabal isn't as strong.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR5BacJdmEj9trmE3qs95wMS4v_ep6lOovTQVXW2t-iHxXaEfwy6qJOyWj0OpG6DnSKBA40CHeENC2FbX4sh5q5JpeHA0ZL64mwSU24bSofBflofQ694Yc8jpvwQfOyDs6PDPDuv060k4/s1600/Angel_scatter_deviation-cyn.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR5BacJdmEj9trmE3qs95wMS4v_ep6lOovTQVXW2t-iHxXaEfwy6qJOyWj0OpG6DnSKBA40CHeENC2FbX4sh5q5JpeHA0ZL64mwSU24bSofBflofQ694Yc8jpvwQfOyDs6PDPDuv060k4/s1600/Angel_scatter_deviation-cyn.png" width="300" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwgMLFfXN86XOLmFAMKHHwAbR9TDVLkAx0Adu8Mz9ANJKqd5_HKct-_FHV2dtKW7_cVnL2bgpCwAy666AXfU9Pf4t_Ds76hfQT3cR_mb5Dy4A9Wh8FX0Uphx-DUEE8ixXjZYrHd9kft3Q/s1600/Angel_scatter_deviation-dram.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwgMLFfXN86XOLmFAMKHHwAbR9TDVLkAx0Adu8Mz9ANJKqd5_HKct-_FHV2dtKW7_cVnL2bgpCwAy666AXfU9Pf4t_Ds76hfQT3cR_mb5Dy4A9Wh8FX0Uphx-DUEE8ixXjZYrHd9kft3Q/s1600/Angel_scatter_deviation-dram.png" width="300" /></a></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div>
Specifically troubling is the Dramiel graph which shows the reverse correlation we'd expect. This could be a signal showing more about the demand driving the price of things more than strictly the supply. Again, the best approach will probably be multi-factor, but this is a very interesting step toward something. Paired with a market-side predictor, this could be a very useful second-source to validate against, or as a means to seed forecasts for items that aren't directly manufactured.<br />
<br />
Also, I try very hard to test both positive and negative cases. It's easy to accept when a model shows promise, and hard to accept where it might fail. The second thing I always do in these kind of searches is try to find a case that breaks the tool, and understand why. This is why I'm not particularly a fan of things like MACD, where it feels like 50/50 shot on whether the signal is true or not. Even more so with <a href="http://www.candlesticker.com/Introduction.aspx?lang=en" target="_blank">candlestick reading</a>. <br />
<br />
Regardless, the NPC Kill rates are a very interesting trendline that I look forward to messing with more. At the absolute least, there are still interesting things to be said about where players are spending their time, and there are still a lot of trends left to pick out of this data set.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com45tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-61313298290600071442016-01-25T07:00:00.000-08:002016-01-25T07:00:04.377-08:00Market Maker Interview - Special 03 - Caleb Ayrania<audio controls=""><br />
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Direct link: <a href="http://dl.eveprosper.com/podcast/Prosper_Special03_Caleb.mp3">http://dl.eveprosper.com/podcast/Prosper_Special03_Caleb.mp3</a><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VeNs62xoa_o" width="640"></iframe><br />
<br />
<br />
We take a look back into the long economic history of EVE with Caleb Ayrania. Revitalizing the scc-lounge in game and on the Tweetfleet slack. Long time market maker and proto-CSM member, Caleb has been a fixture of the economic meta game since EVE's inception.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Check out his other projects here:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Personal blog, with CSM interviews: <a href="http://wp.scc-lounge.net/">http://wp.scc-lounge.net/</a></li>
<li>Project Stepstone Blog: <a href="http://www.neo-anarchy.net/eve/stepstone/stepstone_home.htm">http://www.neo-anarchy.net/eve/stepstone/stepstone_home.htm</a></li>
<li>New News Site: <a href="http://www.eve-guardian.net/">http://www.eve-guardian.net/</a></li>
</ul>
<div>
Be sure to chat with him in game, on tweetfleet, or on tweetfleet <a href="https://twitter.com/CalebAyrania" target="_blank">@CalebAyrania</a> </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Subscribe To EVE Prosper!</h3>
<h4>
Podcast:</h4>
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Support us on <a href="https://www.patreon.com/eveprosper" target="_blank">Patreon</a></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-44415347979229947742016-01-23T20:00:00.000-08:002016-01-23T20:00:19.150-08:00EVE Prosper Market Show - EP049 - Skill Trading Announced <audio controls=""><br />
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Direct link: <a href="http://dl.eveprosper.com/podcast/Prosper_2016-01-21_EP049-NM.mp3">http://dl.eveprosper.com/podcast/Prosper_2016-01-21_EP049.mp3</a><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0Rqt1jOu7WA" width="640"></iframe><br />
<br />
<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1NZQ160Q96Y36rNs8TclUjRYknT-Cv-edwQhQZNtMdXg/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank">Show Slides</a><br />
<a href="https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B9v4WV8DEJUPQnNwNXhHelYwclk&usp=sharing" target="_blank">Raw Charts</a><br />
<br />
Support us directly on <a href="https://www.patreon.com/eveprosper" target="_blank">Patreon</a><br />
<h3>
News:</h3>
<div>
<ul>
<li> <a href="http://www.twitch.tv/ccp" target="_blank">o7 Show is back</a></li>
<li><a href="http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/skill-trading-in-new-eden/" target="_blank">Skill Trading Devblog</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hi0EC7m55wI" target="_blank">Update from CCP Seagull</a></li>
<li><a href="http://csmwatch.com/" target="_blank">CSMwatch interviews</a></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://csmwatch.com/2016/01/20/csm-11-show-1/" target="_blank">CSM11 Analysis Show #1</a></li>
</ul>
<li><a href="http://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2016/01/skill-trading-forecasting-brainmeat.html" target="_blank">Skill Trading - Forecasting Brainmeat Market</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<h3>
Subscribe To EVE Prosper!</h3>
<h4>
Podcast:</h4>
<div>
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</div>
<h4>
<a href="http://twitch.tv/eveprosper" target="_blank">Twitch</a> - Live Fridays 0300</h4>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-49117338185199407642016-01-19T10:09:00.000-08:002016-01-19T12:47:05.894-08:00Skill Trading - Forecasting the Brainmeat MarketAfter much anticipation, CCP Rise announced finalized plans for <a href="http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/skill-trading-in-new-eden/" target="_blank">Skill Injectors/Extractors</a>. I was going to write about specific tweaks I'd like to see ahead of the release in February (2nd bracket is too generous, 30M max), but instead I want to try to dispel the idea of <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Eve/comments/41jbzx/dev_blog_skill_trading_in_new_eden_team_size/cz2su0u" target="_blank">1 Extractor should/will cost 1 PLEX.</a><br />
<br />
<h3>
Let's Talk About RMT Tokens</h3>
<div>
Let me skip the fluffy story and cut straight to the meat about PLEX. For extended pontification about PLEX, <a href="http://twitch.tv/eveprosper" target="_blank">tune into the Prosper show live</a>.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEScJnSVyGpZ_H_zexcDe9h5ncLZVAmbLqbrBiBuqxc_QnqCiMaFOTkGffAbNJpeGICe-pB8n6whNAzZm7jyiXGj1vpGA2E2JQ1ABrsK8tKyYa9lOW_PV0K1onmsopqdFbmd0YkcJtscY/s1600/PLEX_2016-01-13_10000002.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEScJnSVyGpZ_H_zexcDe9h5ncLZVAmbLqbrBiBuqxc_QnqCiMaFOTkGffAbNJpeGICe-pB8n6whNAzZm7jyiXGj1vpGA2E2JQ1ABrsK8tKyYa9lOW_PV0K1onmsopqdFbmd0YkcJtscY/s640/PLEX_2016-01-13_10000002.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<table><tbody>
<tr><td><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_QWZ6sQP1P6hA7ozhdAkxluZUEX1MzormnrVvG5qnjqG1RESeajTPVzscxvacqvWiajl4sag9MpJ-k1g-WThjc60h21heU-Abowz0_zVXioYIxcK80c_htCJt2u_3bW3HaIxXMX2MZR8/s1600/PLEX_volatility_CDF.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_QWZ6sQP1P6hA7ozhdAkxluZUEX1MzormnrVvG5qnjqG1RESeajTPVzscxvacqvWiajl4sag9MpJ-k1g-WThjc60h21heU-Abowz0_zVXioYIxcK80c_htCJt2u_3bW3HaIxXMX2MZR8/s320/PLEX_volatility_CDF.png" width="320" /></a></div>
</td><td><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAsBBbBQcW0YV7RIYE6L90Sry1G78wTxUhF41NBJULi96rHKU43nIlwExa8m1f2YQ0ieU0JyYJbsy3ESvHjkqPd2hj8MFZ34nCk6ZIP992W7wwPBDG-JQ-u6jNait0OEEC4UY5GN2AzB4/s1600/PLEX_volatility_density.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAsBBbBQcW0YV7RIYE6L90Sry1G78wTxUhF41NBJULi96rHKU43nIlwExa8m1f2YQ0ieU0JyYJbsy3ESvHjkqPd2hj8MFZ34nCk6ZIP992W7wwPBDG-JQ-u6jNait0OEEC4UY5GN2AzB4/s320/PLEX_volatility_density.png" width="320" /></a></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
As I mentioned in my <a href="http://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2015/07/aspiring-harri-seldon-developing-price.html" target="_blank">Forecasting Experimentation Blog</a>, PLEX trends positive over time. There are a lot of factors driving this behavior, but the general tendency to be so securely positive is troubling. What goes up <i>should</i> come down. <br />
<br />
Though I don't expect a slide back to <1B PLEX, I do expect that SP trade to act as relief valve for PLEX runs, capping the wildest swings. The line of thought I expect is "why buy a PLEX and wait 30d to do what I want, when I could instead buy the SP directly and do what I want today?" Especially with such a top-heavy game, I expect SP supply to be substantial if the extractor price is right.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Running the Numbers</h3>
<br />
A PLEX/MCT yeilds ~1M SP over its period. With extractors/injectors running in 500k SP blocks, expecting a AUR price over 0.5 PLEX seems ridiculous. Any higher and buyers will just wait out the 30d, and the gerontocracy remains in tact. Sellers <i>might</i> want to participate, but buyers aren't going to want to pay something like 1.5 PLEX equivalency as a base price. North of 0.5 PLEX makes Injectors a much worse deal than just going to the character bazaar, where a 5M SP toon would cost something like 4+2 PLEX.<br />
<br />
To get both sides to the market, we need to talk about a 0.25 PLEX price ceiling on extractors in AUR. This will drive "farmer" clones who are just extracting SP, but this is exactly what I want to see. If an Injector is a better deal than the 30d of equivalent account time, it will drive target-buyers to consider waiting vs leaping ahead.<br />
<br />
Also, at that generous 0.25-0.20 PLEX price, I think it is a serious temptation from the supply side to subsidize accounts that may not need more SP. Where the supplier could be looking at a 40-60% ISK savings on monthly fees for account-only toons, it would be tempting to keep accounts active that may have otherwise been shuttered.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Forecasted Speculation</h3>
<div>
The first week of skill trading I expect to be extremely hot. To put it simply:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b>Tentative SELL</b>: PLEX, price will rise due to rise in AUR demand</li>
<li><b>SELL</b>: Extractors. Expect extreme demand to be first-to-market with Injectors</li>
<li><b>BUY: </b>Injectors. Supply should vastly outstrip demand. Hold for market to calm down, target Citadel for sale</li>
</ul>
<h4>
PLEX</h4>
</div>
<div>
Other pundits might expect large runs on PLEX, but I expect only enough movement to push us to 1.2B, but not break the RSI cap. This basically wipes out weakness from over the holidays. I still expect a lot of Incarna AUR to be out there to be cashed in, and this will temper how much PLEX->AUR will be converted. Also, savvy suppliers may be going straight to $->AUR, skipping PLEX entirely.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h4>
Skill Extractors</h4>
<div>
I expect demand to be very hot for these. This would be a great chance to liquidate Incarna AUR out of the wallet. Though things might be wild in the opening hours, I expect to reach AUR<->PLEX equivalency quickly. There may be a chance to get a deal on quick buy orders, but this will be a seller's market pretty heavily.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h4>
Skill Injectors</h4>
<div>
I wholly expect injectors to be a buyer's market. For a target, I'd be aiming for something like <i><b>half the PLEX equivalent.</b> </i>Specifically as (Extractor + 1/2 PLEX)/2. That may be an ambitious buy-target, but I think if the price hits in that 1-4$ price point, that there will be a huge surge of suppliers rushing to market for a quick cashout. This may also rebound into the price of PLEX, but I still think people should be holding PLEX for Citadel rather than turning around the quick gains in the shorter term.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Pay2Win</h3>
</div>
<div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoMJTDq4WneQyg-UUOKbAUHTVMnHG5IqysdcN6QSwIiGOYB9tIiToG49YVry1nkb3Je3mUKmEIYohtPshftry4D3QRspsl2p3UmmvbtV3Le9STKfkjHKbhgfr-tj6HYTcfu-m_593Y2JQ/s1600/clone.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoMJTDq4WneQyg-UUOKbAUHTVMnHG5IqysdcN6QSwIiGOYB9tIiToG49YVry1nkb3Je3mUKmEIYohtPshftry4D3QRspsl2p3UmmvbtV3Le9STKfkjHKbhgfr-tj6HYTcfu-m_593Y2JQ/s640/clone.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
There is a vocal segment of the playerbase who considers this pay2win, but I would like to lobby against that position. EVE has never been strictly an egalitarian space-bushido paradise; ISK has always been a deciding factor in conflicts of all sizes. Though skill trading adds a new vector to that equation, I don't think it marks an irreversible deathspiral.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<ol>
<li>SP still needs to be sourced through legitimate means. Account time or MCT is the only way to generate SP in the first place</li>
<li>Cash/ISK will always be a deciding factor, regardless of skill trading. Pimp fits and hot drops aren't considered pay2win today, why would SP trade suddenly change that idea?</li>
<li>Soft-skills win fights more than raw SP. PLEX/Purple tanks haven't saved people in the past. Having an extra 10-20M SP isn't going to make the difference</li>
<li>Account trading already exists as a legitimate way to skip the grind. This skill system only fills out the bottom ranges of that trade to make a more complete ecosystem</li>
</ol>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Remember that skill injection is going to be a net-drain on total SP in the cluster. Though the 5M bracket gets 100% efficiency, all other brackets destroy SP in some measure. Also, I expect SP trade to mirror the PLEX trade, and some decent percentage will get locked away in RMT bans. This pruning of SP from the top <i>should</i> move the median down, giving our youngest recruits a better initial feeling of fairness, and a lowering of the pain for that first 10M SP that are so critical to long term operation in EVE.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I'm excited to trade in brainmeat, and will be adding it to the Prosper analysis as soon as its released. </div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-21310086082336196962016-01-15T07:00:00.000-08:002016-01-15T08:53:01.731-08:00EVE Prosper Market Show - EP048 - YC118.1 Release<audio controls=""><br />
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Direct link: <a href="http://dl.eveprosper.com/podcast/Prosper_2016-01-14_EP048-NM.mp3">http://dl.eveprosper.com/podcast/Prosper_2016-01-14_EP048.mp3</a><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Hg2RECrNW3Y" width="640"></iframe><br />
<br />
<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1E-qwPatqv7hR1u7X9NdPOGNfpArm8tYmtyGwNknU7fA/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank">Show Slides</a><br />
<a href="https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B9v4WV8DEJUPd0MzRUdsSkRoR0U&usp=sharing" target="_blank">Raw Charts</a><br />
<br />
Like the show? <a href="https://www.patreon.com/eveprosper" target="_blank">Support us directly on Patreon</a><br />
<h3>
News:</h3>
<div>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2016/01/so-you-want-to-run-for-csm-11.html" target="_blank">So You Want To Run For CSM 11</a></li>
<li><a href="http://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2016/01/market-maker-interview-special-02.html" target="_blank">Market Maker Interview: Charlinda Akheteru</a></li>
<li><a href="http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/csm11-elections/" target="_blank">CSM Season Opens</a></li>
<li><a href="http://csmwatch.com/csm11-interviews/" target="_blank">CSMwatch interviews</a></li>
</ul>
<div>
<h3>
Subscribe To EVE Prosper!</h3>
<h4>
Podcast:</h4>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Every Episode: <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/EVEprosper">http://feeds.feedburner.com/EVEprosper</a></li>
<li>Special Episodes only: <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/EVEprosper_special">http://feeds.feedburner.com/EVEprosper_special</a></li>
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<h4>
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/EVEProsper" target="_blank">YouTube</a></h4>
</div>
<h4>
<a href="http://twitch.tv/eveprosper" target="_blank">Twitch</a> - Live Fridays 0300</h4>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-63663892546981662662016-01-12T07:00:00.000-08:002016-01-12T07:00:05.436-08:00Market Maker Interview - Special 02 - Charlinda Akheteru<audio controls=""><br />
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Direct link: <a href="http://dl.eveprosper.com/podcast/Prosper_Special02_Charlinda.mp3">http://dl.eveprosper.com/podcast/Prosper_Special02_Charlinda.mp3</a><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GP3nOF_nYZ4" width="640"></iframe><br />
<br />
Ever wonder how drugs/boosters make it out into the world? Curious about the particulars of running a complicated industrial corp out in PVP space? Charlinda Akheteru of Akheteru Integrated Astrometrics is our Booster Market Maker. We chat with him about the specifics of running a high-risk, high-reward industrial operation and raising external capital for major expansion.<br />
<br />
Need boosters? Stop by their in-game channel AIA Pharmaceuticals or their website at <a href="http://akheteruia.net/index.php?action=pages" target="_blank">akheteruia.net</a> to get your booster supply handled!<br />
<br />
<h3>
Subscribe To EVE Prosper!</h3>
<h4>
Podcast:</h4>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-65301141771093885312016-01-11T07:00:00.000-08:002016-01-11T11:46:24.270-08:00So You Want To Run For CSM 11<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://content.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/68905/1/CSM11_Logo-white.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://content.eveonline.com/www/newssystem/media/68905/1/CSM11_Logo-white.png" height="246" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<a href="http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/csm11-elections/" target="_blank">Details for this year's CSM election period are released</a>. So it's time to spin up the political machine and talk about this year's field.<br />
<br />
First, preparation is key. And as we have been fond of saying on <a href="http://capstable.net/" target="_blank">CapStable</a>/<a href="http://csmwatch.com/" target="_blank">CSM Watch</a>, the best time to start a campaign is at the end of a cycle. If you are <i>just now</i> considering your CSM 11 run, understand that you are already late to the race. I'd still advocate running, but rather as kickoff for CSM 12 than really expecting to make it into CSM 11. For those that have spent 2015 preparing their run and building their name, the final stretch is upon us!<br />
<br />
<h3>
Build a Team</h3>
<div>
Just like IRL politics, candidates do not run 100% on their own. The best thing any candidate can do is build a small team to help double-check their work. When Ashterothi ran for CSM 10, he called on myself, Phyridean, and a few other close corp mates to help hone his campaign. Through constant communication, he was able to air his first-draft ideas before a close panel where we could better tune the message. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Also, find someone who will talk you out of fights. Again, being politic season, <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Eve/comments/402sep/drama_csm_member_sion_kumitomo_accuses_steve/" target="_blank">there will be mud</a>, and the mark of a good candidate will be to resist the base urge to roll with the pigs. Despite an urge to do otherwise, there is power in quiet; standing above the mud slung.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Beware The Mud</h3>
<div>
In American politics, there is a story about Lyndon B Johnson where he wants to <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/books/news/this-hunter-s-thompson-passage-is-particularly-poignant-in-light-of-that-david-cameron-and-the-pig-10510787.html" target="_blank">start a rumor that his opponent is a "pig-fucker"</a>. The object of the completely fabricated libel: to make his opponent deny it. By giving the rumor airtime from the victims side, you're empowering the attacker's side. Rather than letting it die as tinfoil, you give credence to a completely fabricated story.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
A stunning example of this cycle was at the end of CSM 9 and into CSM 10. Where FunkyBacon/Xander were accused of breaking NDA by Sion. Xander took every bait to a fight to defend himself. Despite it being completely backwards logic to assume "what is he hiding?", the story stuck to Xander for the whole campaign. Though there is a time and place to fight accusations, it takes an adept touch to craft the message and remain on top despite attacks.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
CSM != Mini-Dev</h3>
<div>
Though it's an asset to bring mechanical expertise to the table, CSM is not an avenue to supercharge your F&I threads. Much like student council, you're not going to have the ability to outlaw homework. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Instead, CSM is an opportunity to build a constituency and bring the group's opinions to the table. Rather than just airing your own armchair-development, be able to mobilize your favorite professions. Get to know the other key players in that meta and work with them to be their representative. All the independent candidates can point to a constituency they represent, and they know key members to call, and can be reached by the people they represent.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Get Your Name Out There</h3>
<div>
This can be particularly difficult for the newer candidates, but make sure to use every opportunity to be heard and have your name on people's tongues. Besides <a href="https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=topics&f=5971" target="_blank">Jita Park</a>, make sure you're in <a href="http://csmwatch.com/csm11-interviews/" target="_blank">CapStable's interview list</a>. Schedule a AMA on <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/eve" target="_blank">/r/eve</a>. Reach out to podcasts in your meta for interview/guest spots. Approach the news sites about publishing editorials. Arrange open roams with open comms. Anything to make your name and ideas known.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The next 2-3 months need to be spent socializing with your constituents and other metas close to yours. Don't worry about not being the perfect WH candidate if you're not running in that meta, there are 14 seats to fill and a lot are up for grabs this year.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-29303622834120971942016-01-08T07:00:00.000-08:002016-01-08T07:00:07.151-08:00EVE Prosper Market Show - EP047<audio controls=""><br />
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</audio> <br />
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Direct link: <a href="http://dl.eveprosper.com/podcast/Prosper_2016-01-07_EP047.mp3">http://dl.eveprosper.com/podcast/Prosper_2016-01-07_EP047.mp3</a><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xBNra_Qt2n8" width="640"></iframe><br />
<br />
<a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1mvci11CwnJmfNdZGZ9O7nKHT3CUOPjHjW2_kxFRbr-Y/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank">Show Slides</a><br />
<a href="https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B9v4WV8DEJUPNDEwOWxIV1o4LUk&usp=sharing" target="_blank">Raw Charts</a><br />
<br />
<h3>
News:</h3>
<div>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2015/12/q4-2015-plex-forecast-recap.html" target="_blank">Prosper 2015-Q4 PLEX Forecast - Recap</a></li>
<li><a href="http://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2016/01/eve-economy-2015-in-review.html" target="_blank">EVE Economy - 2015 Review</a></li>
</ul>
<div>
<h3>
Subscribe To EVE Prosper!</h3>
<h4>
Podcast:</h4>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Every Episode: <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/EVEprosper">http://feeds.feedburner.com/EVEprosper</a></li>
<li>Special Episodes only: <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/EVEprosper_special">http://feeds.feedburner.com/EVEprosper_special</a></li>
</ul>
<h4>
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/EVEProsper" target="_blank">YouTube</a></h4>
</div>
<h4>
<a href="http://twitch.tv/eveprosper" target="_blank">Twitch</a> - Live Fridays 0300</h4>
</div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-35089168618981961672016-01-05T07:00:00.000-08:002016-01-05T07:00:04.630-08:00EVE Economy - 2015 In ReviewGetting quite a few requests to talk about 2015 as a whole this season. Being news/short-term minded, I wasn't prepared to talk at length about the year in review, but I adjusted some scripts and pulled the data for you all. This is meant to be a look at our forced core-basket products for Prosper. A greatest-hits blog will take some more effort, but be sure to leave a comment if you want to see more!<br />
<br />
And if you want to skip straight to the graphs, I've put together <a href="http://imgur.com/a/o5uop" target="_blank">an imgur gallery</a><br />
<br />
<h3>
PLEX</h3>
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<br />
I have been cutting my teeth on PLEX all year. It's the first product people want to know about, and there are a lot of people shilling opinions of wildly varying quality. I said at the start of the year that 1B PLEX should be expected in 2015, but I missed the timeframe. Originally, I was expecting 1B PLEX by fanfest, but a mix of <a href="http://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2014/12/isboxer-tale-of-two-items.html" target="_blank">ISboxer fallout</a> and extended out-of-game sales on PLEX kept the lid on the market. But the summer showed sustained growth that suddenly exploded in September, rocketing us past the 1B price to a steady state now around 1.2B. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I still believe the price of PLEX is overvalued, but the current dip down to 1.15B looks to be a local minimum, and it's a really great time right now to stock up for the year if you're looking to replenish your stocks. Also, <i>I expect </i>the prices of PLEX to have less positive-volatility with the release of skill packets or brainmeat, but CCP has been quiet on details since fanfest.</div>
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<a name='more'></a><br /></div>
<h3>
Minerals - High Ends</h3>
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<br /></div>
<div>
CCP Fozzie has been touching the mineral equations a bunch this year. The biggest news was at fanfest where Megacyte/Zydrine consumption was announced to be doubled across the board, and nullsec ore yields would be adjusted to better balance the ISK/hr equation for miners and local supply of raw minerals on the frontiers.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Though prices dramatically reset because of the news, we've seen a slow and steady erosion of value over the summer. This goes back to my opinion that "[isk generation] will always grind away their margins". In this case, miners just want to get paid, and will supply the market with as much material as they can produce, and unless there is production demand to absorb it, we will see an imbalance trending downward. Since the actual supply of minerals is not hard-capped like moon materials, we should nearly always expect high-end minerals to be in oversupply.</div>
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<h3>
Minerals - Low Ends</h3>
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<div>
Where high-ends went up, low-ends went down. Part of the yield update was a generous improvement in Trit/Pyre availability in nullsec. This bump in supply was seen as a slump in final demand for these products. Though, with the hype around Capitals/Citadels this fall, we've seen a recent bump in prices. When these products actually hit in the spring, I expect some more strength in these low-end materials. </div>
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<br /></div>
<h3>
Minerals - Mid Materials</h3>
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<div>
Going to keep this to Mexallon, because it's really the interesting piece of the puzzle. For the uninitiated, Mexallon tends to be the chokepoint in really heavy industry operations (capitals). It doesn't compress well, and it isn't sourced well in nullsec. Therefore, it's a bit of a canary in the coalmine for me around speculating in the mid term around capitals and citadels. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Also, Mexallon is a particular bright spot for the show because I managed to forecast the climb before EVE Vegas.</div>
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<h3>
Fuel Markets</h3>
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<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I expected more action in the fuel markets over the year than we actually ended up seeing. To the point where I considered pulling the fuel segment from the show a few times. With Phoebe and Aegis reshaping the map in such significant ways, I expected big moves as capitals had their roles revisited and as the map reshaped thanks to new sov. We just have not seen the kind of behavior I really expected.<br />
<br />
Specifically, I've found the behavior on Caldari ice products to be weird, outstripping other flavors by a large margin. I expected prices to trend more toward equilibrium around 700/unit rather than stratifying the way they have in the last few months.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512094210839495098noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797378688270512563.post-32628396327937204352015-12-29T12:02:00.000-08:002015-12-29T12:02:31.574-08:00Q4-2015 PLEX Forecast - RecapBack in October, I put out an "official" forecast for PLEX over the winter months. Check out the details on the original post here: <a href="http://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2015/09/q4-2015-plex-prediction.html" target="_blank">Q4-2015 PLEX Prediction</a> which includes source data and code.<br />
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<br />
Honestly, this went better and worse than expected all at the same time. <br />
<br />
<h3>
The Good</h3>
<div>
The major problem I had originally was picking a t0 starting point. I originally used a 60-day moving average, but fans of the show will know I switched to a 30-day t0 with much better accuracy. Though I don't love the GBM method that is working under the hood, the first period (pre-holiday) is actually pretty not-bad considering the prediction was created in the most unstable period of the last year. In the future, we can probably stick to a simpler exponent model rather than the more expensive GBM model used here. For more info on how it's made, check out: <a href="http://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2015/07/aspiring-harri-seldon-developing-price.html" target="_blank">Developing Price Predictions</a>.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Given how blind a shot the prediction was, I'm extremely happy to be in the ballpark, even if the ranges at the end are pretty wide.</div>
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<br /></div>
<h3>
The Bad</h3>
<div>
There are 3 big screw-ups going on here:</div>
<div>
<ol>
<li>t0 starting point</li>
<li>GBM vs exponential modeling</li>
<li>Mis-predicting discontinuity</li>
</ol>
<div>
Though the first two were expected before starting, I was a little surprised at the December performance in PLEX. Specifically over the last week where the price dropped. I did not really expect PLEX prices to slump under the 1.15B mark, or to continue their slide so strongly after black-friday. This peak/slump mirrors last year's behavior, even if the specific timings don't line up. Also, the current weakness is strange to see, where last year we could point to <a href="http://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2014/12/isboxer-tale-of-two-items.html" target="_blank">ISboxer policy changes</a> driving changes.<br />
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<h4>
2014-Q4 PLEX</h4>
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<h4>
2015-Q4 PLEX</h4>
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I tried to cook "down in December" into the model, but I expected things to stay flat at 1.2B rather than slumping under 1.15B. Some of this might be attributable to Frostline drops including PLEX/MCT's, but the yields there seem extremely low compared to daily Jita trade volume.<br />
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<h3>
Conclusions</h3>
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If you were waiting for a chance to buy in, now is the time. The IRL price of PLEX is a little squishy at the moment, but things should stay in the <1.2B region until March when we should expect news/release of Citadels. I am stealing a page out of <a href="http://eve-prosper.blogspot.com/2015/11/market-maker-interview-special-01.html" target="_blank">delonewolf's book</a> to point at growth into that release and Fanfest. I will try to cook up new predictions for Q1/Q2 in the upcoming weeks. Without a date for Citadels in stone, it will be hard to get ranges correct.</div>
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