Friday, April 26, 2013

Odyssey Moon-Goo Shakeup

DISCLAIMER: I am a terrible speculator.  I won't pretend to understand the political/economic forces behind the final price fallout for R64-goo changes.  I only present the facts as they are today as a close-enough estimate for the future.

I haven't had time to catch up with the Fanfest Keynote yet, but me and my industry buddies have been wildly scrambling to figure out the fallout of the proposed changes coming in the next year.  Though the obvious is already running wild, there are a few more threads that have yet to become obvious.

With the material change dev blog giving the supply-side a huge amount to chew on, let's talk about the changes.

Speculation and Reactions

The simple reality here is CCP is trying to rebalance the "peak tech" problem.  I won't say "fix", because this is EVE and alleviating a chokepoint without moving it to a new product would be piss-poor game design.  The end goal is to move from a R32 moon product to a R64 moon product as the choke point.  This, I assume, will melt a lot of OTEC's economic might and take some of the wind out of the big Tech holder's sails.  The nerf-bat giveth though, and I anticipate Neodymium will take the place of Technetium.  If you really want to speculate further on political impact, I have to point at K162Space's map analysis.

But, my world is centered around T2 manufacturing, so what does this mean for T2?  Once again, this looks like a big shakeup for ships, and very little fallout elsewhere.  If you're in modules, pre-Odyssey will look a whole lot like post-Odyssey.  Anything that touches Capacitors, Microprocessors, or Reactors, expect to see a 10-20% cost boost.

The really interesting part is the new materials.  A new racial "composite" and ThuliHaf + ProMerc.  The new composites tie into the new secondary materials to get a balance of the 4 R64/R32 compounds: Neodymnium, Dysprosium, Promethium, Thulium.  The idea being that Composites will require control of opposite sides of the map to monoploize.

Maps credit K162space!

Gallenium: ThuliHaf + Crystallite Alloy

Matarium: Neo Mercurite + Fernite Alloy

Amarrium: ProMerc + Rolled Tungsten Alloy

Caldarium: Ferrofluid + Titanium Chromide

Don't really have time to analyze the alchemy path on this one.  All I can say is today the alchemy reactions look pretty even with the traditional path.  Again, speculate at your own peril.

The Bottom Line

But, in an effort to be prepared, I could not resist building another spreadsheet.

I threw together the new products, the changes to components, and a few gross dials to be able to come up with some ballpark prices for ships.  I also had some help from Mynnna on his anticipated price points.  Using today's margins + proposed changes, I can tell you right now we're looking at a 20% increase across-the-board on T2 ship prices.  Speculators will probably drive the price a little wild until Odyssey hits, but I expect oscillations to settle rather quickly (~2wks-1mo) as speculative stockpiles cover the gap until new materials hit the market.

I think the biggest swings are obvious if you do the math... but I might be over-estimating the bulk of market makers on this one.  I have formulated my own plan to cash in on Odyssey, not that I'm sharing!

Though, remember this is EVE:  Take free information with a grain of salt :)
Reality Distortion Field