My Space-Retirement

I hate reading this kind of blog, and I hate writing them even more.  One day I should show off how many drafts of this I have stuck in limbo.  My IRL trajectory has steadily diverged from EVE, and it's time to accept that and make plans known.

We'll save the how/why for a little later, but I want to address fans of the show first.  The Prosper show has been the thread keeping me tied into EVE, and our community around Prosper has continued to surprise me with their knowledge and enthusiasm.  The community we've been able to generate around this niche-of-a-niche has been extraordinary and I am constantly floored by all the players in the space-economic sphere.  This whole project has exceeded every expectation, and I have to thank every single audience member and technical contributor that's got us here.  None of this would be possible without a whole lot of help from wide range of people.

Before you unsubscribe and leave everything in the dust, do know that I still hope to keep active in the blogging/streaming spheres.  Though we are closing this chapter in EVE, we are looking upward to new topics that I think many will enjoy.  Though I can't commit to details yet, know that I'd very much like to turn this brand of analysis onto something more real, and help teach more in the vein of the #devfleet.

Expect the final EVE Prosper show to air in June.  I'd very much like to hit #100 before we close this chapter, but I don't want this to be the end of our little community.  I am still enthusiastic about the same things that started Prosper (economics, programming, datascience) and still want to bring a down-to-earth style to topics that might look insurmountably complex.  But I cannot continue to be that resource for EVE.

Thank you everyone that has made this show possible.  Thank you to Caleb/Rhivre at the SCC-Lounge, Jeronica at EVE-Mogul, and thank you to Dirk MacGirk and Materall at INN, for helping weave a community both in and out of game with us.  Thank you to the Capstable crew and the likes of NoisyGamer for helping us grow this srsbzns niche.  And thank you immensely to Randomboy/Kane, Chris Mellen, and Etienne Erquiline for all the behind-the-scenes technical work to build EVE Prosper into what it has become... and I am sure I'm still missing a cavalcade of others who have helped us stand and grow.


No one truly quits EVE, and I can't for certain say this is the absolute end... but after 12 years of play, and 5 years of content making, it's time to look to a new chapter.  Please, do join us as we bring this show to a close, and thank you to everyone who has made this possible.  There are a few remaining projects in the runway, so be sure to watch to the very end.

o7

CNBC for EVE?

I'm of two minds about the response/feedback I've received about the Prosper Market Show over the last month.  On the one hand, I'm floored with a lot of the successes.  Those that are vocally supporting the show really mean a lot.  And this week's show was the best stream I've had by far.

• New peak live viewer count: >45 (EP002)
• almost 200 youtube subscribers (thanks delonewolf)
• almost 200 Twitch subscribers

On the other hand, I've been annoyed the traction hasn't been as high as I was expecting.  For years I've heard from a lot of friends things like "We get great war reports, and news reports... but where is the market reporting?"  The response from /r/eve was particularly anemic.

When I wrote for TMC, market/industrial analysis was my niche.  Unfortunately the truth behind that style of analysis is it's a metric butt-load of work try and roll that analysis for every investigation or report.  Every major article I wrote for TMC took weeks to fetch, crunch, build charts, and publish.  And despite all that work, I was always outclassed for pageviews/comments by editorial work, or ALOD content.  I never received a best-of-the-month bonus on any article I produced (though I always ranked in the top 5 articles for months I wrote for them).

Now, I'm sure the issue has to do with the reactionary nature this level of analysis requires.  It's a serious undertaking to try and strike while the iron is hot on news like Burn Jita when the goal is serious analysis.  People want to know about the future, and really don't care about the past, when it comes to market analysis (no matter how periodic EVE data tends to be).

The part that has me riled up is the "Why isn't there a Jim Cramer of EVE?" question.  I find this frustrating because I don't think the people asking it realize the true depth of analysis that is run on the IRL markets versus the EVE ones.  Though I'll gloss over the part about EVE != IRL because of things like lack of credit, and no derivatives/futures markets, and our trade is purely in commodities.  Instead, I don't think people understand the difference between the level of spreadsheet-jockeying that is commonplace in EVE versus what it really takes to run a show like Mad Money.  No one is doing indicator analysis, no one has rolled up machine learning algorithms to suss out interplay between items, no one is plugging RSS news feeds into a bot to automate predictions.  Instead, any serious analysis either requires painstaking time investment, or years of "gut tuning" to be able to play any truly speculative market game.

I know what the bulk of EVE actually wants out of a market show: Push-Button Receive-Bacon trading advice.  They want to be able to tune in, and within 15-30mins be told which secret item du juor will make them space rich.  The reality is that quality of tool does not remotely exist in EVE today.  And though developing tools for this Prosper Show will probably get us to a place like the high-frequency robot traders of IRL, the journey there is going to take quite a lot of development and time.

To those providing critical feedback, I do hear you.  I will be working to tighten up the show to add more value for the time frame I'm committed to (~40min/wk).  I will be adding and removing segments to better serve up the info that is most important, and try to dig into the gross trends so everyone can get what they want out of it.  But know that unless others join me in a market analysis arms race, the breadth and quality of information will never be able to deliver "CNBC for EVE".

Presented without context:

Interlude

It has been a whirlwind for me since the start of the year.  Was making some excellent progress toward tools, was cooking some ambitious EVE plans for my friends and myself, and then WHAM! IRL struck a critical blow to my free time.  Thankfully the blow is a net positive for me, not so much for you #graphpr0n fans.

What Is It You Do Again?

If you ever wondered why I have such a passion for big data, graphs, and manufacturing, you only have to look to my real life job: Wafer Test/Probe Engineer.  Simple TL;DR is we're the last stop for wafers in fabrication... we prove if the design and process meets spec to ship forward to package.  We filter out 95-99% of the bad die and provide direct data for process/design feedback.  In short, we're implementing all of the tests for the parts, and generate fuckloads upon fuckloads of data.

Personally, I've spent my time on Phase Change Memory, a NAND replacement.  With one project dying, I've been moved to a new bleeding-edge team.  Needless to say, it's been hot and heavy, and it's left me with almost no free time to do my EVE hobby work.  

In the end, I am an engineer first.  As much fun as messing with EVE data is, it's only an outlet to approach problems from work in a new light.  In all seriousness, I've been given carte blanche to do the data work I want for real, and may have the opportunity to pursue patents for my big-data work.  I'm not quitting EVE, but my time is going to be severely limited going forward.

"The Plan" v2.0

"The Plan" originally was to announce my CSM candidacy by now.  I was hoping to run side-by-side with @Fuzzysteve, and push API, industry, and general balance going forward into (a perceived) "Blue Doughnut" future.  I will need to dedicate another post to the entire CSM plan, and I'd still like to throw my hat in, but I don't feel like I can balance the CSM work load against the lucrative career opportunity that work has presented me.  

I've been trying to drive my sparse EVE time into helping Aideron Robotics conquer and hold Fliet.  This has left my industry operations in the lurch, to the chagrin of my new partner in crime.  There are some murmurs we're working through to perhaps push some new industry work, but in the meantime, I've been keeping my focus on Aideron's needs.  

So Many Inventions Half Invented

This massive shift in my IRL work has dropped in at exactly the wrong time.  I currently have the data/graphs/charts for two pretty big data pieces.  I pushed a lot of code between Christmas and the end of January... and I can't really share the results with you all because I don't have time to put the presentations together!

First, B-R5RB.  I was exquisitely well positioned for this fight, having just released a new tool for Aideron Robotics to take a different look at zKillboard data than I had done originally (more about it in March).  I was even approached by Crossing Zebras' Xander Phoena to do an infographic reminiscent of my Booster Consumption piece.  Despite my best efforts to deliver, my approaches did not solidify quickly and I am once again left with a dozen or so graphs and the data behind them... but no finished product.  If Xander is reading this, I really am exceptionally sorry I've been unable to deliver.  

Second, January's blog banter.  Thanks to Chribba, I have a dump of his eve-offline data up to mid January.  I was going to string this all together with market/destruction data to talk about the perceived lull in subscription/player numbers.  I had most of the data processed, but was lacking a good way to put it all together into a compelling story.  This is about 75% complete.  I will try to take some time soon to try and tie it all up... or at the least dump the #graphpr0n here for the general populace to enjoy.  There were some interesting conclusions, but I just ran out of time.  Enjoy a small scrap in the meantime.

2 Year Jita Market View - Click to embiggen

Lastly, it seems CCP Quant has taken the reins to push more EVE data out from CCP... which is awesome... but it's hard to compete as a 3rd party against the real thing.  It's been a great breath of fresh air to see CCP pushing their own data out again, since the loss of CCP Diagoras.

Nothing Worth Having Comes Easy

There was a troubling sentiment stirred by my recent posts about out of game market feeds being broken.  What's worse, outrage seems to be woefully misdirected on this issue; not so much at the tools but at those that use them.  If you'll pardon a little rambling, I'd like to see if I can get our collective heads on straight about the issue.  This has been distilled down from some far less eloquent frothing rants.

What Is Truly Upsetting

The out of game feeds are furnished by breaking the rules.  Hem and haw over the actual value those tools enable, but the simple and undeniable truth is scraping the cache is against the rules.  Now, CCP is not Judge Dredd, and therefore is treating this issue similarly to US DOJ vs states with marijuana legalization: "technically illegal, but not worth enforcing".  I don't believe we are in danger of market feeds actually being taken away, but I am afraid CCP will never see the effort of internalizing those feeds as worth pursuing.

I think it's important to stay on topic with this issue to make sure we build a request that CCP can reasonably deploy and sunset this weird gray relationship market aggregators live in  Though I think there are opportunities for development that CCP is ignoring, that are enabled by cache scraping, the real truth is the cache needs to be removed and the security hole plugged.  Market feeds are important to 3rd party devs, but an official stream is a better solution in the long run.

Tools are Unfair

This is the sentiment I've found troubling.  That somehow, those who take the time to develop and use tools to increase their effectiveness are "ruining the game".  Frankly, this is a crock of shit.  EVE is hardcore Anarcho-Capitalism at its core.  Those with the largest legion, the deepest pockets, the best tools, and the most charisma are going to win.  You are not entitled to profits and success, you have to work for them.  And even with work, you can lose it all.  It's the nature of the cold terrible game we play.

In my mind, this is tantamount to complaining that guides are unfair.  That somehow doing things "the hard way" rather than looking to build off those that came before you is the purest way to play.  Furthermore, to decry me because my solution is better than yours and you haven't invested the effort to try and beat me... it's just silly.

I am more than happy to explain mechanics or share tools, it's a game and we're a community... but I won't be made the villain purely because I spent (considerable amounts of) my time perfecting my small segment of gameplay and you did not.  I am but one man, and with enough work, time, effort and friends you too could surpass me... I have no secret sauce, only a lot of experience in figuring out what does and does not work.

You Can Only Change Yourself

There are a lot of common whines in most PVE/industry/market circles.  The most common can be summed up: those with no life are making it impossible to play casually.  From "the 0.01ISK game"  to "mined minerals are free" to "incomprehensible market behavior" there is no limit to outrage that certain players are playing the game wrong and ruining it for the rest of us.

The long and short of it is, EVE is a sandbox.  If you don't like a certain segment of play, it is usually within your power to avoid or change it.  

• Hate competing against 0.01ISK changes?
• Move out of Jita/Amarr/Dodixie/Rens
• Operate in lower volumes or in less cut-throat products
• Step up your game: split your orders and beat them at their own game
• Get friends, start your own 24hr cartel!
• Think T1 margins are too thin?
• Don't build T1
• Find miner contractors who think their free time is free
• Become more agile to capitalize on margins as they become available
• Absurd market moves ruining your margin?
• Buy out very low orders
• Raise buy-order floor and snatch up low price goods automatically
• Hire mercs!   Kill them all!

If you change yourself to suit the environment, you will find far more opportunities than waiting for the game to be magically changed to suit your demands.

Free Time Is (Not) Free

There is a quote from The Mittani that has been bouncing around my skull for the last month about how "HS industrialists will clamor and fight over single-percentage-point margins... and null industry will not exist when it's essentially raw cost + shipping to get it to front lines".  I am paraphrasing, but he's essentially right.  Despite the fact that older players eventually learn the lessons, thoughts like "mined minerals are free" or "free time is free" are pervasive.

In my new corp's recent SOTC, the industrial director expressed the desire to have more POS reaction farms, but was unsure how to achieve that goal.  Doing my duty, I proposed a scheme: tax private POS.  Under the plan, I provided a path that the corp would be entitled to basically the margins it is currently receiving, but could expand that revenue for zero corp-level capital costs.  Furthermore, I built up a working prototype tool to help parse API data so it would be easy to track who owed what.  Unfortunately, the plan was shot down because "Paying industrialists is a slippery slope and incentivizes the wrong behavior".  Furthermore, "because you should want your effort to help the corp grow" altruism should make you want to donate your time/talent/treasure for the good of the team.

If your corp business plan for industry is the above: stop right away.  Here's a better plan that involves less effort, and yields EXACTLY the same margin/member: PLEX for membership.  If you're going to bilk people for their time to achieve your personal goals, with no shared wealth down the line, you're better off just charging membership fees and avoiding all that pesky "revenue generating" that takes time away from "elite PVP".  I get that there's a need for shared effort to achieve goals, but this isn't sharing.  This is like working at Walmart: executives gather 13k/employee in profits above wages paid (largely on the back of welfare subsidies).  If there is a big goal, there is room to share the wealth and still rely on pilots "contributing to the greater good"

Frankly, I operate on a policy: If I can't afford to pay people to do it, I can't afford their help.  In my own work, I've strived to prove that you could pay at least 1 PLEX/mo/char and still have more than enough margin to grow the corp.  If I can generate 3-5 PLEX/mo off one character's work, why is it too much to ask for that endeavor to cover my account fees?  Or directly put ships in my hangar?  If you are going to get rich purely by burning human capital until it burns out, AWOXing or straight out theft/scams are a better path.  If you can't share the wealth getting rich, then you aren't getting rich.

"Bottom up income" has been a marching call for CSM and those who believe that moon incomes are game breaking.  The tools exist to build large scale, bottom up incomes with industry, but it also requires OOG tools and some creativity.  Frankly, what directors seem to want is just a "set knob, recieve money", which more and more I am against.