Friday, March 1, 2013

February Progress Report

Totally stealing inspiration from EVERYONE on this one.  Being the end of the month, it's time to review progress and check against goals!

First, graphporn:

Predicted progress:


 Actual progress (to WW05)

Analysis 

Profits and margins slid in February.  Growth in margins was eliminated by the drop in Nomad prices.  Shrinkage in overall returns was due to a mix of issues.  One piece can be attributed to slacking off, I lost some 7+ days in an already short month.  Second due to some stress from being overleveraged due to the Nomad build.  And third, a significant shrinking in margins on ships due to the cost-spike related to the NOTEC announcement.  

Margins are cooling on a lot of my mainstay products.  I want to believe this is due to a very active industrial surge to match with the surge in accounts since Retribution.  Also, ships are becoming a shaky place to operate, since many T1 variants are matching most T2 hulls at significantly lower costs.  The only place left for producers are the ships with hyper-focused roles.  T2 modules still are selling very well though, so much of the cooling from ships is being picked up in modules... but there is a time bottleneck on very-high-volume module production preventing me from really cashing out in that realm.

Goals Checklist:

In-Game Goals:

  • Stockpile 10B ISK: Failed
    • Managed to stock ~8B into the bank, but 4B is slated for resuming JFs soon(tm)
    • Committing another 2-3B to a market-hub experiment in the FW warzone
  • Purchase BPOs for Black Ops: Success
    • Though I intended to get both Dominix/Armageddon BPOs, I settled for 'Geddon x2 for now
    • If Redeemers preform well, will add Sin's in short order
  • Maximize POS/character utility: C+
    • POS allocation is adequate at this time.  Though will be tough if another contractor starts
    • Invention/Copy/Research allocation on track
    • Was not able to start 2nd ship manufacturer due to cycle delays and ISK limitations
  • Start up 9th industry mule: On Track
    • Char #8 is ready to run, but still needs ~35d more training to be complete.  
    • Trying to have more all-4 inventors to spread the invent load out

Prosper Goals

February was the month to finally nail down the database.  And once again, as I do so often, I underestimated the work.  So far, progress has been good, but slow.  The RAW price database (1.5yrs of eve-central data boiled down to by-system "box and wisker" values) will be done this week.  Also, I have started laying the framework for the next DB, kill data. 

My shortfall can be blamed on a lot of factors.  February started with a "manic" verve to get code down, but was quickly fizzled due to IRL work stress.  Also, my method of coding is a lot like a rat working through a maze for the first time.  I spend a lot of time doing it wrong, and I have to gut 70% of the work and try again.  I think I've put myself on a sustainable path to avoid rework, but there were a lot of hours of work, and not a ton of code to show off.  If I can commit more good chunks of undisturbed time, like it's a homework assignment, I can make some real strides and progress down.

I'll discuss the various databases and their goals in next week's "goals" post!

Market Prediction Review

  • Shrink in overall margins: True
    • Margins are shrinking slower than I expected.  
    • "Guns and Bullets" isn't good enough.  I had to diversify into additional modules
  • Blaster rubberband: True
    • As I predicted, blasters crashed and rebounded.  
    • Was perched perfectly to milk the incoming bubble 
  • Ship Margin Shrinking: True
    • Though I was more doom-and-gloom, the ground under T2 ships is shrinking
    • Zealots weren't as good a bet for Feb as I anticipated
    • I bet on the wrong hictor (Phobos)
    • Recons are volatile   
  • What I didn't see:
    • NOTEC caused price bump in ships, but shook out quickly
    • Nomad Price Crash
    • Medium Ammo margins halved
    • Improvement in general module profits and volume
    • Weird volume problems in decryptors.  Need more investigation
I will write a goals/prediction post for March this weekend.  It's nice to set goals and be able to check off boxes!