Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Hari Seldon for CSM

CSM voting has been open for a week, and the murmurs I hear are the voting is going well.  Endorsements and last-minute politicking are flying.  But let's get to the brass tacks; who will be on CSMX?  Danikov from TheMittani.com has a great infographic tracing the endorsements out there so far.

Endorsement map - Courtesy Danikov at TheMittani.com
I asked for some help from Danikov to help highlight the groups I expect the election to fall into:

  • "Golden Triangle": Corbexx/Steve/Sugar
  • Bloc candidates
  • Strong Candidates
  • Everyone else
Of the 76 candidates that passed CCP Leeloo's review, only ~25 really have any contention for a seat.  I am removing from contention people who don't have Jita Park threads, or didn't apply for an interview at Capstable.  Also, I am filtering out some very-long odds candidates who don't have the platform or support required to really meet Rippard's famous "1000 vote" threshold.

First Pass CSM Prediction


Let's fill from our most-likely groups.  That's the "Golden Triangle" and an expected bloc effect.  I won't actually rule on final ranks.

  1. Sugar Kyle
  2. Corbexx
  3. Steve Ronuken
  4. CFC - Sion Kumitomo
  5. CFC - Endie
  6. PL - Manfred Sideous
  7. BRAVE - Cagali Cagali or June Ting
  8. PROVI - coreblodbrothers
  9. N3 - Gorga
  10. RUS - UAxDEATH
There are 14 total seats, and 10 seats already have strong probability of landing a seat.  This is terrible news for incumbents like Mike Azariah, Xander Phoena, and Gorski Car.  For the last 4 seats, here are who I consider in contention for those wild card seats.
  • Ashterothi
  • Gorski Car
  • Jayne Fillon
  • N3 - Gorga
  • BRAVE alternate (June or Cagali... whoever doesn't make the first BRAVE seat)
  • Bobmon
  • Chance Ravinne
  • Bam Stroker
  • Alyxportur
  • BL - DomanarK
  • Mike Azariah
  • CODE/Marmite candidate 
That's an extremely crowded field for a small number of seats.  There are definitely combinations I'd prefer over others.

Expected Result:

  1. Sugar Kyle - Permanent Attendee
  2. Corbexx
  3. Steve Ronuken
  4. CFC - Sion Kumitomo - Permanent Attendee
  5. CFC - Endie
  6. CFC - Thoric Frosthammer
  7. PL - Manfred Sideous
  8. BRAVE - Cagali Cagali or June Ting
  9. PROVI - coreblodbrothers
  10. RUS - UAxDEATH
  11. N3 - Gorga
  12. Bam Stroker or Chance Ravinne
  13. Jayne Fillon
  14. BL - DomanarK
Alternate Contention:
  1. Chance Ravinne or Bam Stroker 
  2. BRAVE - June Ting or Cagali Cagali
  3. Gorski Car
  4. Mike Azariah
  5. Ashterothi
Unsure Predictions:
  1. CFC - Thoric Frosthammer
  2. RUS - UAxDEATH
  3. Bobmon
With only 4 seats to really play with, it's a real coin toss on who will really make it past the post.  There are also some weak spots in the field that might move the ranks around, but things get tight when trying to predict positions 10-20.  For instance, I'm having a hard time standing by a 3rd CFC chair, and the PL endorsements are pretty mercurial.

Definitely looking forward to the announcements at fanfest to see how close to true I was.  As soon as voting closes, I will be publishing a few articles about actual campaigning.  I'm especially excited to get those out to the candidates who may miss the post this year and retool for a CSM 11 run.