Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Signal to Noise

I have been working with the crew at CapStable for the last couple of weeks on a news project. With all the hype CCP has been generating about capital changes announcing at EVE Vegas, there have been rumors of those changes being leaked by someone on the CSM.

I have no hard evidence pinning any CSM member to a leak, or specifics about what was even leaked. What I do have are some suspicious flags turned up for EP040 of the EVE Prosper Market Show:



I don't want to dive into specific politics as I am not entrenched enough to really build a compelling case confirming or exonerating any specific rumor.  But, I do want to cover the methods of what flagged, expand on why, and see if there is any actual merit to the rumors or if it's just a case of confirmation bias.

What Did The Tools See:

If you're interested in exactly HOW Prosper flagging works, please check the Price Flagging blog.  TL;DR: looking for deviation from a moving average.


After doing this Prosper project for a year, I tend to categorize flags 3 ways: 
  • General market noise
  • News related flags
  • Unique flags
That last category is specifically for "weird" behavior.  Things like item groups that never flag, core basket items like minerals or PLEX, and high-meta items that look like loot-table changes.  In EP040's flagging these items piqued my interest (note: SIG is a factor of strength/direction of a given flag)
Just looking at the charts, either side could be vindicated. On the one hand, the basket is pretty damning looking at so much capital equipment tripping flags. Specifically Siege Modules and Drone Control Units triggered my interest because they have never flagged up to now. On the other hand, this could just be scrupulous speculation; capital changes are in the pipline, a positive outlook could be rewarded ahead of time.

Zooming In

This is exactly why we collect EVE Central data as well as CREST market histories. Though I do not use the other hubs in the show this was a great opportunity to use some additional data. Where before I would just push the flags as the main evidence, we have the EVE Central intra-day data to back up or refute any claim.

The plots are included after the break, as well as some links to more expanded versions. As for conclusions, I think the project is a wash. I find the Siege/DCU flags particularly suspicious, and though it looks very small, the Tritanium bump is troubling. Otherwise, the other flags just look like normal market noise. I have heard some more substantial murmurs that the rumors might have merit, but I was unable to find the smoking gun in my data.


Click to embiggen
Imgur Gallery


Tritanium


Mexallon


Capital Shield Booster I


Capital Capacitor Control Circuit II


Einherji


Templar


Capital Trimark Armor Pump II


Siege Module I


Siege Module II


Drone Control Unit


Capital Remote Capacitor Transmitter I



8 comments:

Elizabeth Norn said...

I don't think a leak is necessary, though I don't doubt they happen (you only need to look at some items a few days before a balance change announcement is made). We've had CSMs report that the changes are good on twitter, supposedly a dev got drunk at EVEsterdam and said a bit too much, Vince Draken (NC. alliance leader) telling his members to hold on to their supercapitals and probably a few other things. Researched Capital Component BPOs have also been selling at a very significant markup on contracts recently, between two and five times the usual markup I put on top of the NPC price. If you think something is up though, report it to CCP's Internal Affairs.

Belitch eveplay said...

Honesty they just introduced ( or we found) t2 xl guns as well as it was confirmed from ccp that caps would rebalance announce vagus on 70 show. This appareas to be prep for these things. Nothing to see here

Belitch eveplay said...

Honesty they just introduced ( or we found) t2 xl guns as well as it was confirmed from ccp that caps would rebalance announce vagus on 70 show. This appareas to be prep for these things. Nothing to see here

John Purcell said...

I have been advocating for months about speculating on capital changes... and the savvy investor should have already been bought in by the last o7 show. But the devil is in the details, and if some segment got specifics spoiled, it really ruins the party for the rest of the speculative game.

But the flags don't pick up the slow-boil kind of movement that general speculation would generate. Instead, these sudden spikes out of the blue show someone willing to trade a given margin because of a "sure thing".

Though the zoom ins here aren't specifically damning, there's enough to raise heckles on both sides. I only wish I had a means to lock in something more conclusive.

Simen Lyse said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Belitch eveplay said...

So true : The spokes could be due to buyers for larger alliances making buys on behalf of the entire org. Could this cause a flag ? Kinda just wondering here : Played since 2009 never really did much marketing but normally when I hear hooves I think horses not zebras. <3 the work either way

james franklin said...

I'm guessing that the alarms are going off now, after the blog came out on citadel construction needs. I really need to bring a laptop to work.

james franklin said...

I'm guessing that the alarms are going off now, after the blog came out on citadel construction needs. I really need to bring a laptop to work.

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