Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Signal to Noise

I have been working with the crew at CapStable for the last couple of weeks on a news project. With all the hype CCP has been generating about capital changes announcing at EVE Vegas, there have been rumors of those changes being leaked by someone on the CSM.

I have no hard evidence pinning any CSM member to a leak, or specifics about what was even leaked. What I do have are some suspicious flags turned up for EP040 of the EVE Prosper Market Show:

I don't want to dive into specific politics as I am not entrenched enough to really build a compelling case confirming or exonerating any specific rumor.  But, I do want to cover the methods of what flagged, expand on why, and see if there is any actual merit to the rumors or if it's just a case of confirmation bias.

What Did The Tools See:

If you're interested in exactly HOW Prosper flagging works, please check the Price Flagging blog.  TL;DR: looking for deviation from a moving average.

After doing this Prosper project for a year, I tend to categorize flags 3 ways: 
  • General market noise
  • News related flags
  • Unique flags
That last category is specifically for "weird" behavior.  Things like item groups that never flag, core basket items like minerals or PLEX, and high-meta items that look like loot-table changes.  In EP040's flagging these items piqued my interest (note: SIG is a factor of strength/direction of a given flag)
Just looking at the charts, either side could be vindicated. On the one hand, the basket is pretty damning looking at so much capital equipment tripping flags. Specifically Siege Modules and Drone Control Units triggered my interest because they have never flagged up to now. On the other hand, this could just be scrupulous speculation; capital changes are in the pipline, a positive outlook could be rewarded ahead of time.

Zooming In

This is exactly why we collect EVE Central data as well as CREST market histories. Though I do not use the other hubs in the show this was a great opportunity to use some additional data. Where before I would just push the flags as the main evidence, we have the EVE Central intra-day data to back up or refute any claim.

The plots are included after the break, as well as some links to more expanded versions. As for conclusions, I think the project is a wash. I find the Siege/DCU flags particularly suspicious, and though it looks very small, the Tritanium bump is troubling. Otherwise, the other flags just look like normal market noise. I have heard some more substantial murmurs that the rumors might have merit, but I was unable to find the smoking gun in my data.

Click to embiggen
Imgur Gallery



Capital Shield Booster I

Capital Capacitor Control Circuit II



Capital Trimark Armor Pump II

Siege Module I

Siege Module II

Drone Control Unit

Capital Remote Capacitor Transmitter I