Sunday, June 16, 2013

Anshar Project - First Fruit

Behold the first fruit of the collaboration between @K162space and myself.  This calls for spaceship cheesecake.

Ze Numbers:
  • Build Cost: 5,325 M ISK
  • Raw Material Value Today
    • Pre-Odyssey math: 4,910 M ISK
    • Post-Odyssey math: 6,315 M ISK
  • Market Value at time of post: 6,250 M ISK

Working as Intended?

So far, the plan is ticking away largely at the intended pace.  Patch market shakeouts however, are not.  While I write this, the market is sitting at 6.3B.  As I've pointed out in my previous posts, market prices tend to track instantaneous build costs, and right now the market is upside down.

There's only so much I can sit on my hands with Anshar1.  I've overextended the budget slightly preparing for Odyssey, so I need the proceeds from Anshar1 to pay for Anshar3.  Though, if numbers are to be believed, it's going to be a good weekend to start building T1 freighters... unfortunately my personal Fenrir BPO is in research to satiate my own OCD about build times.  Though that advice may be wrong, since I have no real intuition about how low can low-end minerals really go.

What Did You Learn?

So far things are going pretty well, but there are some notes worth sharing

Don't Make Assumptions

I ate a little margin because I was watching one graph, expecting the others to match the same trends.  I've had my focus on all things Minmatar over Odyssey because those ships will be the most expensive once things settle out.  Unfortunately, T2 changes have no baring on T1 products.

Watch The Market

Traditionally, I have just ignored the various ups-and-downs of the raw materials market.  Usually, the large shifts wash out by the time I come to market, and the small shifts are so small they aren't worth chasing (<5%).  This practice isn't good enough with Jump Freighters.  The post Burn Jita dip was an excellent opportunity to make a lot of extra margin, but I was just barely late to that party on Anshar1.  

Thankfully, now with histories becoming a stronger tool in my arsenal, I'm able to make slightly better buy-in choices.  Unfortunately, with the rather ambitious production schedule and Odyssey financing, I've given myself less area to maneuver than I would like.  Not taking things too seriously, but trying to fit work into appropriate schedules is a little more juggling than I am used to.

Planning Is Everything

The real life saver on this project was a well thought out plan of attack.  Without at least a framework on how to execute, I would have fallen into many of my classic pitfalls.  Thanks to an attention to accounting and a plan that fits around IRL events (rather than the other way around), I have been able to do this project with very few hitches.  Also, the pre-planning for Odyssey should put us in a position to really ride the wave through the turmoil of the summer and see slightly stronger margins than expected.  As long as financing stays on the rails, we should beat expectations (~6B profit total)

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