10,000 Hours

I personally am a firm believer in the '10,000 Hours to Mastery' house of thought.  Not so much in the exact number, but in the idea that "Nothing is achieved without work.  And mastery takes A LOT of work".  This is how I approach both my in-game work and out-of-game projects; I can read and theorize all day, but it won't count for anything without actually doing the work.

Aideron Robotics has made me focus more on this topic lately.  With such a vast sampling of players, many of them in their first 6mo, I've caught myself being an elitist jerk.  Having made almost all the mistakes one can make in science and industry, I have a burning desire to save and shelter my friends from making those same mistakes.  Unfortunately, I'm realizing very quickly, the value of that advice is not appreciated until you've suffered through some of your own mistakes.  I'm also quickly realizing my initial newbro industry advice is a poor cop out.  Watching Manufacturing Confusion's new blog shows me I'm way too entrenched in my position to be very helpful to our newbros.

Snuffing Out the Spark

What's really bringing this reality into sharp focus is the constant ribbing I'm getting on my code.  I got a serious talking to the other day about efficient data structures, and my complete disregard for efficient database design.

This behavior is the ire of my existence when it comes to learning code.  When pulling yourself up by your own bootstraps, there is a ton to learn.  Without direct mentorship, there are a lot of sins that Stack Overflow isn't going teach you avoid.  Furthermore, any one facet of code is infinitely deep, and without keeping a keen focus on goals, it's easy to get lost in optimizations and perfecting a piece of code.  Just like writing books, articles, or blogs, there's as much art to saying "good enough" as there is to actually producing good work.

Personally, I've been jumping on the anyone can code bandwagon.  After making progress and looking back at the pain, I really believe a lot of the elitism is unwarranted.  Also, the resources out there for learning skills out there are unprescedented.

• Never touched a bit of code?  Codecademy
• Intermediate general programming know-how, but don't know the language?  Learn Python the Hard Way
• Don't know anything about internet code methods?  W3 Schools
• Want to know about EVE API programming?  EVE-id

When all else fails, Google has been instrumental in helping to bridge the gaps.  Personally, I work very best with ample examples, and it's not hard to find snippets to walk through to add to the tool belt.  Though the very best option would to work with a team or master who can help you avoid the sins of CS, but we're all extremely busy and sometimes DIY is the only way it will ever get done!

Furthermore, an ugly tool is better than a beautiful tool that doesn't work.  For the last two years, I've leveraged gdoc sheets of increasing complexity to get where I am today.  I even still use my super-terrible-perl-kitbuilder to enable my manufacturing lines.  And you can post about how terribad my tools are, but I'm still making progress.  Don't worry if your tool or program or plan isn't perfect, make it crawl, then make it run!

But You're Doing it Wrong!!!

Being on the other side of the coin in-game, I'm starting to see why my input isn't helping anyone.  I could write a thousand guides, record YouTubes, make infographics, and I still won't save most people from pitfalls.  I can only hope to guide them away from the most egregious issues (Mined Minerals Aren't Free, T1 is a sucking hole, etc) and save them the effort to reinvent the wheel.

I will be sitting down with my new corpmates over the following weeks in the hopes of building some less jerky tutorials and help get our youngest newbros fully integrated.  I really feel AIDER has done an excellent job avoiding the traditional PVP grind (tackle until you have enough SP to be useful), and there have to be lower fruit worth picking on the industry/trade side of the coin.

Some sins must be committed to understand the value of another route.  Whether that takes a code refactor (or several) or some ISK is lost, as long as we're mentoring friends to avoid the largest and most painful pitfalls, they can still contribute to the team.

Emergencies Are Expensive

Coming back to Aideron Robotics has been an incredible boon on my desire to play EVE.  Mostly because they are enabling me to try new and exciting parts of the game that I hadn't done before.  The first is the POS Reaction Farm, which is something I've wanted to try for a while.  The second is stocking a market hub.

Though I am shying away from open market orders, I'm embracing with both arms open wide fitted ship contracts.  With our ambitious goal of taking and keeping Heydieles for the Gallente, this seemed like a great opportunity to use my industrial skills as a big force multiplier.

After tinkering with a sheet from another corp member, Vic Vorlon, I was able to really enable the work on the scales I'm used to.  Thanks to the members filling out a table of fits, I am able to task out a JF load with extreme efficiency.  In the last week, I've pushed over 3B in fittings to Heydieles... to say nothing of the shipments for the POS project along with that.





Experimenting with published sheet data.

Challenges

But, I'm running into some issues in providing these contracts.  Chief among them is "20% markup?!  You're crazy! #goonfucking".  To which my chief response is "Push Button, Receive Bacon" comes at a cost.  If I can't get paid for the time required at rates I think are appropriate, then I will simply stop the practice.  Flying in fleets is way more fun than the JF dance.

Yes, my rate is high.  But I would counter that "emergencies are expensive".  If you're stocked ahead of time, and put your efforts into being prepared, you don't have to pay my margin.  If you're lazy, or too busy focusing on the major corporation goal to stabilize Heydieles, then the mark up should be gladly paid.  Someone else spent the time for you!  I know for a fact that these contracts have enabled local FC's to reship the fleet quickly and flip fights that would have otherwise been lost.  That edge has a cost.

I by no means hold a monopoly, and I am doing my best to tune prices effectively.  The margins on frigates are wider since they are our primary tool, but narrower on the cruisers to prevent price being a reason to avoid an escalation opportunity.  There are at least two or three other guys who can help shoulder the burden, but haven't been able to meet the immediate demand.  If we can get more effective coverage, I am more than happy to bow out to others.  I'd even prefer to not be in the business... it's a lot of cash to leverage, and the payout time is slow.

I hope to have a more complete report of the effort once Heydielese is properly secured.  The hope is that I can ween down stocks after this weekend or next weekend.  But until then: For the Federation!!!

The Universe is a Small Place

I have a particularly terrible loss on my record that my friends in Aideron Robotics will never let me live down.

https://zkillboard.com/detail/23183263/

Due to a big mistake on my part, I did not change my AP route planner from the previous night's PVP roam.  Thought I was flying gate-to-gate, I was not paying attention to the route.  Once I realized my mistake, it was too late.  Didn't help that the loot fairy was so damned generous.

I continue to defend that despite such a monumental loss AIDER still managed to meet its obligations to its staff that month and the industry program continued as planned.  So in the scale of fails, though that might have bankrupted anyone else, and caused members to ragequit, we came out largely unscathed as an organization.  Also, it helps that we didn't lose the freighter we have a particular sentiment for.

Fast forward to yesterday.  One of the guys who ganked me, EURIPODES, was in local and struck up a conversation.  After shooting the shit back and forth for a bit, he told me a rather interesting story.  It seems his cut from the gank (1B) was used to get him from being constantly space-poor to instead invest in sustainable income.  Now he's among the space-rich... all thanks to, as I joked, "Unintentional Philanthropy".  He continued to thank me for the leg up, and returned the 1B as karma.

Sometimes this game is amazing.  Though I am not hurting for ISK, I really appreciate the gesture.  It's fun to see something go full circle like that.  Just to get the story is worth the loss at this point.

Let's Make a Deal

Since industry is mostly about market PVP and making ISK, there is a lot of wheeling and dealing.  Sometimes those deals are bad (and they should feel bad), sometimes those deals are great, and sometimes things shake out generally neutral.  In general, I avoid direct/bulk sales, but I do try to be helpful to friends when I get a chance.

I recently left Paxton Industries and came back to Aideron Robotics.  Half of the reasons are for business/play, the other half is a rant about nullsec that I'll have to indulge later.  I am returning to Aideron Robotics because I know the people, the density of code/tool oriented people is the highest I've ever found, and Marcel Deveroux extended a deal I couldn't refuse: help the corp generate income through a POS reaction farm.  Also, FW is more my pace for ops, even if the ships are smaller than I usually like flying.

Any negotiator will tell you the secret to successful bargaining is to make sure both parties feel like they walk away from the table with a win.  Though there's a small segment of scams that prey on this rule by fooling the victim, you can't fool all the people all the time.  For the vast majority of business, you have to strike a bargain for both parties; very rarely do you get the fortunate position of being a dictator.

Making Corp/Alliance/Coalition Programs

The big pet peeve I had against Paxton was every one of their "deals" was looking to screw the other party.  Their capital program for allies was far more expensive than the open market or any other internal service, their industry and POS programs were all designed to take 100% of proceeds with only a "service guarantees citizenship" nod in return.  Frankly, these practices are not sustainable, and will cripple growth.  Your volumes will be difficult to maintain if you're expecting nearly scam-level returns.  Your personnel churn will be high without rewarding the staff directly.  Worst of all, it leads to complacency among the management and membership because "why do better?"

The truly great programs benefit everyone.  You provide a service that customers need, and you treat your employees well.  The GSOL presentation at EVE Vegas (the best presentation of the convention IMO) showcased the backbone of GSF/CFC's military might: their ability to deliver the hardware where it's needed when it's needed.  GSOL membership is paid, often in PLEX, for their efforts.  They are constantly itterating their tools and practices.  They have a focus on getting the right staff, and doing their damnedest to mitigate burnout.  The CFC can absolutely turn the tide of battle before the first shot is fired, all because GSOL is ready to deliver.

The proposal I brought to Aideron Robotics was "I will manage x towers for 1/3rd of the profits".  In the proposal, I outlined a means to expand and include more members, and the expected limits of our reach.  I'm even fronting half of the set up cost (even though I probably shouldn't) as a means to support my friends.  In this deal, all parties get a win out.  I probably would have been more cut throat if I didn't already have a prototype tool made, but things fell into place pretty easily considering.  These are my friends, both in and out of game, and I want to be a force multiplier for them to achieve their goals.

People in Glass Houses

I am not innocent of being a dick when it comes to deals.  I actively run away from direct deals, I dissuade people from selling directly to corp if we don't have a significant need.  So much of this is because Jita represents a gold standard for prices.  I center my projects around Jita, so it would require less-than-Jita prices to make it worth making a substitution.  Either way, one party ends up screwed in the relationship.

I would rather see my friends get full price for their work than prey on their generosity.  The only time it makes sense to me is when someone is already chasing Jita prices locally, so we both avoid a shipping step.  If we are not BOTH making money, I am effectively robbing Peter to pay Paul.  By lowering line-member income, I am causing them to demand more from the corp... and programs may not be strong enough to allow that relationship.

The one position I'm missing here is the communist/socialist WH corp.  This relationship is different, since many of your members will live and die by the corp's stream of goods and equipment in and out of the WH, and the logistics of keeping proceeds individual are just too painful.  Also, it helps that in WH, your wallet balance does you a fat lot of good without access to a market.  But still, this relationship is a win-win on both parties: members get the equipment they need to live and thrive in WH, while the corp gets what it needs to enable that.  Without a feed down to line-members, the WH operation shrivels and dies.

Treading a Fine Line

I had an excellent convo with @EVE_WOLFPACKED and @ChiralityT the other day about the broader topics of delivering an app to the EVE community.  Pair that with the recent Somer Blink scandals, there has been a lot of noise in the 3rd party service sphere.

I've been sitting on this post for a week now, and may regret publishing it.  But I feel that the backlash from this SomerBlink scandal is quickly reaching a fever pitch, and a lot of players are losing sight of an important pillar of EVE: Making a profit isn't evil.  Though I do not condone ISK-->IRL conversion in any path, the service-->ISK angle has been a long-standing feature of the 3rd party sphere.  And as nice as it would be to be a household name like EVE-Central or zKillboard, I'm going to have a very hard time justifying making a public portal like those if it will put me in the poor house, or I lose all my free time to SEO or ad management.

Open Sources Thanks to Open Sources

Let me be 100% clear, my work is enabled only because others have provided APIs.  I would not have kill data if it weren't for zKillBoard.  I would not have in-game history data if it weren't for EVE-Marketdata.  I would not have order histories if it weren't for EVE-Central providing raw daily dumps.

After talking with the contributors from eve-kill/zKillboard on how to best handle their API for my data, they made it clear that I could not in turn make that data secret.  They state in their TOS:

Using the zKillboard database and API for the purpose of datamining, in an attempt to gain an unfair advantage over corporations and/or alliances, is not allowed

And Squizz was extremely explicit in noting they enforce that rule.  EVEwho exists only because someone had tried to make a private spy network with that data, and Squizz instead published a public version and put him out of business.  

So, for the short term, I am in the uncomfortable position that I have collected this data, but am still lacking a distribution means.  I have tried to be open to those that ask questions about the data, but short of maintaining a SQL dump by hand, I don't have a better method than telling people to scrape their own version.

Gotta Make A Living

If things go according to plan, I will be shooting my own margins in the foot when I release an open version of my tool.  Also, I need to figure out a way to pay for service overhead, and I'd prefer not to plaster my site in ads.  Lastly, if I expect to get people to hand me some sort of compensation, I have to be able to prove my service is worth paying for.

Public Features

I'd like to be able to publish access to all the charts I've been making.  I'd like if users could browse through items like Eve-Markets, and see:

• Market candlestick
• Total volume
• Buy orders/day
• Sell orders/day
• destruction (and access to by-location binning: HS/LS/NS/WH)
• Build costs

--also--

• Personal S&I tracking
• Job Tracking
• Kit Building
• Accounting

This should give enough view to return the favor of data given.  I'd like to be able to let people do their own market research on my site, and have some look under the hood how the planning/accounting would work for their own projects.  I have no problem providing data outlays for the big hubs, but the finer the data gets, the more trouble it is to serve for marginal increase in value.

Paywall Features

Let me be 100% clear.  I am in this business to make a buck.  I'm fine with getting paid in ISK, but there are a ton of manhours to be spent in development, and server space ain't free.  In an effort to subsidize the work and server space, I'd like to offer the full suite of tools for ISK at two tiers: a "corp level" and an "alliance level".  Since the intended audience is organizations and not individuals, I'd like to leave the beefier features behind a paywall:

• Price predictions
• Automated production planner (at least suggestions)
• Org-level accounting: paying contributors, tracking stockpiles
• Localized market prediction actions:
• "A lot of people died in this area, market activity should increase"
• "Ship x item to y for increased margin"
• Localized reports outside major hubs

Where the "corp" option allows a flat fee for a limited number of active builders tracked, the "alliance level" would be a % of profits (as they are tracked through the system, no fair taxing un-fulfilled plans) without limits.  I would love to provide tastes of these features to the personal account option, but we'll have to see when we get there.  I seriously doubt my prediction tools will be strong enough to provide a "1wk taste, 4wk 'feature'".

The entire strategy here is to share what was fetched from public sources, but protect the unique tools.  I will keep most of the code environment open, but intend to only protect a very small set of features:

• Machine learning modules
• Open inputs, but protect trained black-box
• Automated decision making tools
• Core feature is to free up S&I managers/staff to play EVE
• Data streams = open, automated decision making = closed

My hope is that only these two modules would remain "sekret", and though the corp implementation would be behind the paywall, the base code behind accounting, kit building, job tracking, would remain open.  

Monetization is my last priority, and is the very last feature to be implemented.  The goal is to allow the 5% that need the horsepower subsidize the 95% of casual users.  If I can provide an ad-free clearinghouse for all the data any industry or market player could want.  

What If Paywall Is Verboten?

CCP has not done a good job in making clear what kinds of services are okay and which are not.  With the recent SomerBlink scandal and API EULA drama over the last year, my plans are very close to (or even over) the line of what is allowed.  Furthermore, I am at the mercy of other API providers, and if I run afoul of them, my entire tool goes dark.  So, it is clear I need to have a Plan-B.

First, providing a front-end that distributes the data I'm collecting needs to be a priority.  I may need to rely on ad revenue to pay for upkeep, but I would love to be able to provide that service to the general EVE playerbase.  

If I can't sell the automated/corp S&I tools, then they will remain private.  If the headache of trying to get my team paid for their work becomes too much, or I get embroiled in a scandal for trying to provide this service to the community, the simplest answer is to lock it down.  I'd prefer not to do that, more users would provide extremely valuable feedback on designing better optimizations options and incentive to really develop a top grade tool... but it's just a game, and I'd rather be largely unknown than infamous and derided.  

The goal is only to "make the best industry corp in EVE" or "win at the market", I'm not looking to pay for a new car/house/whatever and get IRL rich.  My primary goal is to help as many people in my own organization play the game for free, while crushing competitors under my heel in the truest and most extreme version of market PVP.  It also wouldn't hurt to unseat Mynnna as the richest bastard in EVE.